In its post monsoon forecast for the year 2015-16, the Coffee Board of India pegs production at a record 350,000 MT comprising of 107,800 MT of Arabica and 242,200 MT of Robusta. When compared to final estimate of 2014-15 (which was placed at 327,000 MT), the current year post-monsoon estimate showed an overall increase of 23,000 MT (7.03%).
For Arabica, the production estimate has shown an increase of 9,800 MT (10%), while Robusta production has shown an increase of 13,200 MT (5.76%). This increase could be attributed to the highly favourable conditions that prevailed during the current cropping year.
There was extended north-east rains during last year which helped in additional cropping wood for the current season and coffee growing areas have received timely and adequate blossom & backing showers followed by well distributed rains in summer months and south-west monsoon coupled with good crop husbandry practices adopted by the growers.
However, certain pockets of Karnataka have received rains during November month coinciding with harvesting of Arabica which is reported to have led to fruit drop of varying degrees and this loss has not been taken into consideration at this stage of post monsoon estimation since the crop estimate was completed by 30th October, 2015.
The crop loss, if any, due to November rains will be accounted at the time of final estimation, which will be carried out after completion of harvesting of crop.
However, as compared to the post blossom estimate of 2015-16, there is a slight reduction of 5,600 MT (-1.57%), which is a normal fruit drop at different stages of fruit development.
In Karnataka, the post monsoon estimate is placed at 253,340 MT with a break up of 82,460 MT of Arabica and 170,880 MT of Robusta. This is an increase of 20,110 MT (8.62%) over 2014-15 final estimate of 233,230 MT comprising of 10.31% increase in Arabica (7,705 MT) and 7.83% in Robusta (12,405 MT). Among the districts, Kodagu district recorded an increase of 15,585 MT (12.76%) over the final estimate of 2014-15 and this increase was contributed by both Arabica (3,055 MT or 16.94%) and robusta (12,530 MT or 12.04%). Chikmagalur district recorded an increase of 4,730 MT (5.98%) over the final estimate of 2014-15 which was contributed by both Arabica (4,225 MT or 11.06%) and robusta (505 MT or 1.24%). While Hassan district, unlike other two districts, showed a marginal decline of 205 MT (-0.64%) over the final estimate of 2014-15, wherein Arabica has shown an increase of 425 MT (2.29%) while robusta has shown decline of 630 MT (-4.66%).
In Kerala, which mainly produces robusta coffee, the post monsoon forecast is placed at 68,650 MT with a marginal increase of 950 MT (1.40%) over the 2014-15 final estimate of 67,700 MT.
Tamil Nadu which mainly produces Arabica coffee, the current year post monsoon forecast is placed at 18,125 MT as against 17,875 MT of final estimate of 2014-15 which is a marginal increase in production of 250 MT.
In Non-Traditional areas of Andhra Pradesh and Orissa the post monsoon forecast is placed at 9,700 MT with an increase of 1,725 MT (21.63%) against final estimate of 2014-15 of 7,975 MT. The higher forecast in non-traditional areas during current year could be attributed to the fact that there was an increase in bearing area of 4700 ha. in Andhra Pradesh. Besides, the final crop of previous year (2014-15) was brought down by 1500 MT due to Hud-Hud cyclone.
In North-Eastern Region, the post monsoon forecast is placed at 185 MT.
