MILAN – Robusta coffee futures surged Tuesday to new historic highs as Vietnam farmers delay deliveries of pre-sold beans while Red Sea shipping attacks slow deliveries to Europe. In London, the main contract for March delivery crossed the $3,000 mark to close the day at a new record high of $3170, up $183 (+6.1%).
Dealers said there continued to be some disruption to the flow of supplies to Europe from top Robusta producer Vietnam caused by attacks on shipping in the Red Sea.
“Robusta imports from key regions into Europe are becoming costly and slower amid Red Sea tensions,” Rabobank said in a note on Monday.
Egypt’s Suez Canal Authority (SCA) announced Sunday it was closely monitoring the impacts of military tensions in the Red Sea, following major carriers taking alternative routes due to safety concerns.
In New York, the contract for March delivery rose to a two-week high of 185.25 cents per lb, 525 points up from the previous session.
The Intercontinental Exchange will raise the price premiums for physical deliveries of some types of Arabica coffee at the expiration of futures contracts at the exchange, including for Colombian beans, the exchange said on Tuesday.
Beginning with the March 2026 contract expiry, there will be changes to the price differentials for the deliveries of coffees from Colombia, Kenya, Costa Rica and Guatemala.
Higher premiums could encourage deliveries from those four countries, which currently have very low or no share of the certified arabica stocks.
“It brings (exchange prices) for the beans closer to the reality of the cash market,” said Judith Ganes, president of J. Ganes Consulting, interviewed by Reuters
“It will help to bring more coffee to the Board,” she said.
ICE Robusta certified stocks Tuesday fell to a record low of 3,113 lots adding fuel to the fire. According to Barchart, Robusta coffee supplies are expected to tighten further in the cash market as Vietnam’s coffee farmers hoard supplies in anticipation of even higher prices.
According to the country’s General Department of Customs, Vietnam’s coffee exports exports fell 8.7% y/y in 2023 to 1.62 MMT. Also, Vietnam’s agriculture department on November 3 projected Vietnam’s coffee production in the 2023/24 crop year could drop by -10% to 1.656 MMT, the smallest crop in four years, due to drought.
Uganda’s coffee exports were 4.2% lower in December at 401,336 bags. Robusta shipments rose 1.7% to 337,026 bags, while those of Arabica were 26.4% down to 64,310 bags. Cumulative exports for the first three months of coffee year 2023/24 fell 1.7% to 1,297,895 bags.
