MILAN – Reduced supplies from Vietnam continue to boost Robusta prices. The London market recorded a strong recovery on Thursday, with the main contract for September delivery gaining $95 to settle at $4153, a 10-day high, while New York was closed for the Fourth of July holiday.
Robusta prices were supported by Vietnam’s export data, which recorded a 10.6% decrease in the first half of the year. Traders believe that the pace of Vietnamese exports will continue to be slow until the next harvest arrives, in late autumn.
Still, coffee prices could fall with hedge funds’ “extreme” net-long positions in futures at risk of unwinding as weather improves and length stretches to historical breaking points, analysts at Bloomberg Intelligence led by Mike McGlone said in a note.
Meanwhile, the market continues to monitor the weather situation in Vietnam, particularly rainfall levels, following the drought that occurred earlier this year.
“The market will be keeping a keen eye on the weather in Vietnam during its wet season to see if next year’s crop can recover from Vietnam’s April drought,” Rabobank analysts said in a report quoted by Reuters.
“Looking forward, normal levels of precipitation are expected in Vietnam the coming week.”
Parts of the Southeast Asian nation will likely receive enough rain to slightly boost soil moisture, though the amounts have been overestimated, according to weather forecaster Maxar.
Colombia produced 1.172 million bags in June, 22.6% more than in the same month last year, according to the National Coffee Growers Federation.
This brings the total for the first nine months of CY 2023/24 to 9.47 million bags, up 19.3% from the same period last year.
Exports grew strongly (+ 36.3%) reaching 1.026 million in June. In the first nine months, Colombia shipped 8.793 million bags, up 6.9% year-on-year.
Brazil’s exports are also booming. According to preliminary government data, green coffee exports rose 46.6% in June to 3,387,967 bags.
