MILAN – Coffee futures markets rebounded in the last session of the week, after three successive sessions in the red triggered by the (partially) improved weather situation in Brazil and by the Brussels Commission’s proposal to postpone the implementation the Eudr regulation. In London, the Ice Robusta contract for November delivery rose almost 3% to close at $5,067: $146 more than on Thursday, but $415 less than on the last Friday in September.
In New York, the Ice Arabica contract for December delivery gained 530 points (+2.1%) to close the week at 257.35 cents.
Both coffee futures markets were boosted by a decrease in certified stocks, which reached their lowest levels in four months and four and a half months in New York and London respectively, on Thursday.
However, it is worth noting that Ice Arabica’s certified stocks rebounded by more than 8,700 bags to 804,576 bags, on Friday.
The latest Commitment of Traders report from the Ice Arabica has seen the Non-Commercial Speculative sector decrease their net long position by 2.21% over the week of trade leading to Tuesday 1st October 2024: to register a new long position of 40,724 lots.
The latest Commitment of Traders report from the Ice Robusta market has seen the Speculative Managed Money Sector increase their net long position by 6.65% within the market over the week of trade leading to Tuesday 1st October 2024 to register a new net long position of 34,194 lots.
Analysts and traders say that the market fundamentals have not changed and the underlying trend remains bullish.
According to preliminary data released by the Brazilian government, green coffee exports totalled 4,050,950 bags in September, up 36.8% compared to the same month last year.
This figure is all the more remarkable considering the logistical difficulties and port bottlenecks.
Exports also grew, albeit slightly, in Vietnam. According to customs authority figures, shipments reached a total of 866,667 bags last month, an increase of 3.1% compared to September 2023.
However, total exports for the 2023/24 coffee year (October-September) fell by 12.3%, to 24,307,866 bags. The decline reflects last year’s lower production.
The new harvest is expected to begin in November, unless bad weather delays its start. The weather forecast anticipates continued rainfall in the coming weeks in the Central Highlands area.
