MILAN – The new bull run in the coffee futures markets continues, with New York once again at record levels and London back above the $5,000 mark. In the session of Friday 6th December, both exchanges made another strong leap forward. The March contract of the Ice Arabica gained 16.75 cents (+5.3%) to close at 330.25 cents, a new nominal high since the second half of the 1970s, although the intraday peak (331.70 cents) remained below the record level of 335.45 cents set on 29th November.
At Ice Robusta, the front month (January) also rose by 5.3 percent (+$258) to $5,153. The most traded contract for March delivery, closed up $243 at $5,116.
After the profit-taking and position squaring at the beginning of the week, the coffee futures markets rose again, reflecting supply and demand fundamentals.
Climate problems continue to affect production prospects in Brazil and Vietnam, and low stocks increase market tensions and volatility.
In Brazil, coffee growers are reluctant to sell what little coffee is left (it is estimated that only 20% of the last harvest is in the hands of producers). The financial problems of some traders exacerbate market dynamics.
Meanwhile, Arabica (type 6) prices on the domestic market (Cepea/Esalq indicator) reached 2,115.10 reais ($347.48) per 60 kg bag on Friday, the highest value in real terms since June 1997. During the month of November alone, the index appreciated by 37.55%.
The Cepea/Esalq indicator for Robusta (type 6, screen 13) was 1,709.47 reais/bag ($280.84) on the same date. On 29 November, the indicator reached an all-time high of 1,784.02 reais/bag, up 22.97% from the last day of October.
Vietnam’s exports suffered a major setback in November, reaching only 60 thousand tonnes or 1 million bags, according to data from the General Statistics Office. This is 49.1% less than in the same month last year.
Exports for the first 11 months of the year totalled 1.2 million tonnes (20 million bags), down 14.3% on the same period last year. This decrease in volume was offset by an increase in value of more than a third (+35.4%) to $4.9 billion.
Global exports were also buoyant in October. According to data published in Ico’s new monthly report, world exports of coffee in all forms totalled 11.132 million bags in the first month of the 2024/25 coffee year, up 15.1% on the same month last year.
