MILAN – Coffee futures markets have stabilized in the first half of the month, as traders are waiting for more precise news on crop trends and new estimates of Brazil’s and Vietnam’s production. On Monday, 13 January, the ICE Arabica March contract posted a 210 point gain to settle at a three-week high of 325.95 cents.
Supporting the New York market was the weather in Minas Gerais, Brazil’s top Arabica producing state, where the amount of rain falling last week was less than a third (31%) of historical averages for the period.
However, prices lost ground again yesterday, Tuesday 14 January. The benchmark fell 400 points to end the day at 321.95 cents, despite the release of a new pessimistic estimate on the upcoming Brazilian harvest.
Ice Robusta coffee futures saw the third consecutive session in negative territory. The main contract (March) lost $116 between last Friday and yesterday, closing at $4,863, its lowest level since the first week of December.
Not affecting the markets, at least for the time being, was the 2025/26 crop estimate released by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (Ibge), the government agency responsible for statistical, geographic, cartographic, geodetic and environmental information in Brazil.
Ibge predicts, for the next harvest year, an overall drop in Brazil’s coffee production of 6.8% compared to 2024/25, to 53.2 million bags.
The Arabica crop will fall sharply (-11.2%) to 35.6 million bags. The area under cultivation and production will decline by 5.4% and 5.5% respectively, while productivity is expected to fall by 6.1%.
Last year’s prolonged drought affected the flowering and especially fruit setting. Furthermore, in some areas growers have opted for drastic pruning of trees, which will consequently not be productive this year.
The outlook for Robustas is somewhat more optimistic. Production is seen at 17.6 million bags, 3.4% more than in 2024. Robusta productivity is expected to rise by 2.9% due to increased investment in fertiliser and inputs, boosted by high price levels.
The authoritative market analysts Safras & Mercado have provisionally estimated the 2025/26 Brazilian crop at 62.45 million bags, down 5% on year.
For Arabica, S&M expects a 15% decline to 38.35 million, while Robusta production is expected to increase by 17% to 24.1 million.
Conab is publishing its fourth official estimate for the 2024/25 crop year on 21 January.
Rumours, unconfirmed by the organisation’s official channels, suggest that the first estimate for 2025/26 will be released on 28 January.
