MILAN – Following a 5,000km field survey around the coffee belt, Rabobank has downgraded its 2018/19 crop forecast for Brazil from 59 million 60kg bags to a relatively modest 56.8 million.
Arabica production is pegged at 41 million bags falling 1 million bags short of the record crop reached in 2016. The new crop of Robusta (conilon) is seen at 15.8 million.
That is still the highest crop in eight years and a 15 per cent increase from a year before.
Estimates for the 2018/19 Brazilian crop range from IBGE’s 53.2 million to a forecast of 65 million bags from ECOM.
CONAB’s first official estimate comes in at between 54.55 and 58.51 million bags. The median estimate of 56.53 million bags is roughly in line with Rabobank’s figures.
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