MELBOURNE, Australia – Atmospheric and oceanic indicators of ENSO remain neutral, including the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), cloudiness near the Date Line, trade winds, and sub-surface temperatures in the Pacific, reports the Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology in its latest wrap-up. However, surface waters in the tropics near to and west of the Date Line are warmer than average, potentially drawing some moisture away from Australia.
International climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate ENSO is likely to remain neutral until at least the end of the southern hemisphere autumn, meaning it will have limited influence on Australian and global climate in the coming months.
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is neutral. The IOD typically has little influence on Australian climate from December to April. The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is also neutral.
A negative phase of SAM, like the positive IOD event in the second half of 2019, brought a drying influence to parts of Australia from October until late December 2019. Watch a short video explaining recent changes in Australian climate drivers.
