Monday 03 February 2025
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Arabica coffee futures breach the 350-cent mark on Trump’s tariff threat, Conab to release today its first crop forecast for CY 2025/26

The US imported $16.1 billion worth of goods from Colombia in 2023. Colombia is the most important supplier of coffee to the US industry. Trump had threatened Colombia with 25% tariffs after Colombian authorities landed two US military planes carrying a group of migrants expelled from the US

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Demuslab

MILAN – Arabica coffee futures set yesterday (Monday 27th January) new record highs. In New York, the contract for March delivery closed at 349.20 cents (+0.5%), having breached the psychological 350-cent mark during trading to set a new all-time intra-day high of 355.55 cents. US President Donald Trump’s threats of retaliatory sanctions and tariffs against Colombia contributed to the day’s rally.

The US imported $16.1 billion worth of goods from Colombia in 2023. Colombia is the most important supplier of coffee to the US industry.

Trump had threatened Colombia with 25% tariffs after Colombian authorities landed two US military planes carrying a group of migrants expelled from the US. He changed course later, with the White House saying Colombia had agreed to all of Trump’s terms.

That said, the tariffs would only be “held in reserve, and not signed, unless Colombia fails to honor this agreement,” the White House said.

The tariff actions directed toward Colombia provide important context to commodities markets amid looming threats of boosted tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China as soon as Feb. 1, JPMorgan analysts said in a note quoted by Dow Jones Newswires.

“Potential tariffs on imports from these countries could be much more impactful to both complex-wide pricing and U.S. price differentials more specifically,” JPM also said.

March ICE robusta coffee in London fell by 1.5% to close the day at $5,460.

Conab will publish today, Tuesday 28th January, its first official estimate of the Brazilian harvest for 2025/26.

In other news, the Uganda Coffee Development Authority reported that coffee exports for the month of December fell by 2.8% to 413,079 bags.

The decline was entirely due to the lower exports of Arabica, which fell by 26.6% year-on-year to 47,226 bags. This decrease was due to the off-year in the Arabica cycle.

Conversely, shipments of Robusta rose by 8.4% to 365,853 bags. The value of exports rose sharply (+74.3%) to over USD 115 million.

Exports for the first 3 months of the 2024/25 coffee year totalled 1,310,435 bags, a slight increase (+1%) over the same period in 2023/24.

Uganda is Africa’s leading exporter of Robusta coffee. Production is expected to reach in the current coffee year a total of 6.5 million bags, of which 5.5 million of Robusta.

CIMBALI

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