MILAN — Arabica futures prices were again on the rise. Yesterday, Thursday 13 February 2025, the contract for May delivery in New York gained another 490 points yesterday, closing at a new high of 425.10 cents. In London, the May contract lost $33 to settle at $5,788.
How long is this bullish cycle likely to last? In its new poll, Reuters surveyed 12 traders and analysts who were asked to peer into the crystal ball to predict the possible evolution of the market between now and the end of 2025.
The responses revealed a general expectation of a sharp fall in prices, which will nevertheless remain at very high levels.
In fact, the poll had a median forecast for Arabica futures prices at the end of 2025 of $2.95 per pound, a drop of 30% from Wednesday’s close, but a mere 6% decrease from end-2024.
Robustas are expected to fall 28% to $4,200 per tonne. In Brazil, the next crop season (2025/26) will see a partial decline to 64.6 million bags from 66.4 in 2024/25.
This is entirely due to Arabica production, which will fall by almost 2.9 million bags to 40.55 million, partly offset by a higher Robusta crop.
However, respondents are already predicting a strong recovery in production in crop year 2026/27, if weather conditions are favourable.
The forecasts are moderately optimistic for Vietnam’s 2025/26 crop, which will rise to 29 million from 28 million in 2024/25.
In other news, the mid-sized coffee merchant Central do Cafe in Brazil’s Minas Gerais state suspended operations temporarily starting this week, seeking to renegotiate its debts, reports Reuters quoting a note shared by farmers on Thursday and local media.
Brazilian coffee traders Atlantica and Cafebras won a grace period in courts late last year to renegotiate debts with clients after the firms said they were impacted by defaults from farmers.
