SAO PAULO, Brazil – After upping 12.5% in January, the CEPEA/ESALQ Index for Arabica coffee (São Paulo) started February at a record level, in real terms, reports in its latest update CEPEA, the economic research center at Esalq (“Luiz de Queiroz” College of Agriculture), USP (University of São Paulo), in Piracicaba.
On February 12, the CEPEA/ESALQ Index for arabica coffee type 6, delivered to São Paulo city, hit the record of Cepea series (since September 1996), in real terms (IGP-DI), closing at BRL 2,769.45 per 60-kg bag.
On Feb. 13 and 14, however, the Index dropped, but it still rose from January 31 to February 14, 8.89%.
Price rises were related to the limited coffee supply, due to the high percentage of the product that had already been sold, low stocks due to the smaller production in both Brazil and Vietnam, the firm international demand and projections indicating a small 2025/25 crop.
There are no aspects indicating significant price drops in the short-term. The restricted supply is likely to lead sellers to wait to sell the remaining product only in cases of urgent needs.
Conab released a report for the 2025/26 production in Brazil, estimating 34.7 million 60-kg bags of Arabica coffee, 12.4% less than in 2024/25.
As for Robusta, Conab projects 17.13 million bags in the 2025/26 crop, upping 17.2% in relation to the season before. Considering total production (arabica and robusta), it may total 51.8 million bags, downing 4.4% in the same comparison.
