The crop 2014/15 for arabica coffee was officially closed in June marked by bad weather and prices 33% up in nominal terms compared to the previous season (2013/14). Between July/14 and June/15, the CEPEA/ESALQ Index for type 6, hard cup or better (delivered in São Paulo city) averaged 443.30 BRL (165.32 dollars) per 60-kilo bag against 332.49 BRL (145.25 dollars) per bag from July/13 to June/14.
Quotes had strong oscillations during the season due to speculations on crop yield and estimates for the next season (2015/16). The difference between the highest and lowest Index in the season reached 40.3%. On July 11, 2014, the index registered the lowest level in the season, at 364.29 BRL (163.94 dollars) per bag and on October 9, 2014, the index reached the highest level, at 511.05 BRL (214.00 dollars) per bag.
Agents surveyed by Cepea showed that in the 2015/16 season, the difference between prices of high and low quality coffee should be greater. This is a consequence of the small productivity of high screen coffee in the 2015/16 crop.
Despite reduction of coffee output (green, roasted, soluble and grounded grain) exported in June, the Brazilian 2014/15 crop (from July/14 to June/15) ended with a record amount shipped. According to the Coffee Exporters Council (Cecafé), Brazilian exports in the 2014/15 season amounted 36.5 million bags, 6.9% up compared to the previous crop. The revenue totaled 6.85 billion dollars, 28% higher than the previous season. In Real (BRL), it amounted 18.43 billion BRL, 50.34% up.
This increase in exports is linked to high coffee prices. The average price (FOB) of all coffee types was 187.42 dollars per 60-kilo bag, 20% higher than in the 2013/14 crop. Besides, the high amount of Robusta coffee available in the Brazilian market pushed up prices.
Regarding the 2015/16 crop, it is early to estimate the pace of shipments. However, harvesting is signalizing percentage of smaller grains. In July, agents believe exports might be lower than in June. Rains at the beginning of harvesting hampered fieldwork. Coffee available now has low quality and size.
