Matteo Borea, strategic consultant and innovator in the coffee sector, co-owner of the historic La Genovese coffee roasting company in Albenga, Italy, and author of the blog matteoborea.it, a reference point for evolved coffee entrepreneurs, shares with us how the coffee industry is rapidly shaping from the EUDR to Trump’s tariff policy. According to Borea, it’s the industry that needs baristas and consumers to evolve, not the other way around. Below, we share his opinion.
The change in coffee industry
by Matteo Borea
MILAN, Italy – The coffee world has fallen into a vicious cycle so obvious that only those wearing blinders can pretend not to see it. Even though many have forgotten, Europe is facing the EUDR, which imposes new sustainability and traceability requirements, sending coffee producers into a panic (or close to it).
Then there’s the United States, with Trump’s tariff policy that has literally sparked a trade war. It started with Mexico and Colombia, but it feels like this could escalate in any number of ways.
The result? To sell in Europe, producers must comply with the EUDR (i.e., more checks, more bureaucracy, extra costs). To sell in the United States, they have to pay duties that are quickly becoming a massive drain. And we’re talking about coffee—one of the most widespread commodities on the planet, a product that moves entire economies.
But the real kicker (or the real trouble) is yet to come: these same producers, pressured by costs, are understandably looking to divert their supply to emerging markets like Asia and the Middle East, which are growing at breakneck speeds.
For now—at least—it seems simpler there: fewer regulations, higher demand, especially for quality products. In other words, there’s a very real risk that traditional Western markets will end up with less coffee available. And when supply drops while demand remains stable (or grows), you know what happens: prices shoot through the roof.
So it’s inevitable that, in a few years, arabica and robusta will both reach new highs. Personally, I wouldn’t be surprised to see arabica hit $11 per kilo and robusta not far behind.
For now, these are just predictions—maybe overstated—but history shows us that markets can surpass even the gloomiest forecasts. And we’re not just talking about the Stock Exchange, speculation, and fearmongering: we’re talking about a real-world context of producers breaking their backs, shady traders, and an industry that’s trudged along under an unsustainable model for far too long.
And here’s the key question: “How do we quickly make the consumer more aware, so they stop treating coffee as a commodity and start seeing it as a precious, high-quality food?”
The answer, as easy as it is to say, is incredibly hard to implement. Because before we can talk about how to “educate” the consumer, we have to deal with a sector that’s divided, dormant, mummified, and resistant to change.
Let’s do some soul-searching: how many times over the years have we spun a bunch of tall tales about coffee without ever truly investing in skill-building or sharing knowledge?
Borea: “I don’t want to be too harsh, but I believe a bucket of ice-cold water now and then does us good, because our industry has a massive responsibility to own up to: we’ve consistently and knowingly exploited both producers—leaving them the smallest slice of the pie—and baristas and consumers, keeping them in the dark so we could sell rubbish at premium prices”.
Let’s not dance around it. Let’s be honest: this is the harsh truth no one wants to admit. But now, with green coffee prices having been sky-high for a year, it’s being thrown back in our faces, revealing all the dirt we swept under the rug for so long.
Unscrupulous speculators, coffee dealers, and roasters who bought low-grade beans; salespeople and managers who sold everything but coffee, enticing clients with easy financing or even throwing in kitchenware sets to put up one more sign.
No one ever actually sold the value of the product. The best arguments the industry has used to talk about coffee have been “Arabica blend” and “secret recipe.” The result? A class of so-called entrepreneurs (sometimes calling them “entrepreneurs” is like calling a pigeon a “battle falcon”), baristas who barely know how to pronounce “specialty coffee,” and consumers who treat coffee like a simple morning pick-me-up.
What have we done to reverse course? Nothing. In fact, we’ve encouraged ignorance “because it was easier to sell that way.”
Now that the price of green coffee is forcing everyone to face reality and acknowledge its real value, our true colors are showing: experts arguing about whether ground coffee should be stored in the fridge or freezer, roasters asking for advice on cutting blends with barley, and “sales reps” going at each other with baristas because, until yesterday, all they had to do was take orders—and suddenly, they have to explain an increase on the new price list.
Here’s the reality: we’re unprepared. We can’t justify the price hike to the same consumer we deliberately kept “in the dark,” and above all, we’re incapable of communicating and selling the real value of our products and services.
It’s the industry that needs baristas and consumers to evolve, not the other way around.
Blaming baristas and consumers for “not getting it” is way too easy. The responsibility is ours alone, because we’ve spent a lot of time chasing profit and very little time on value.
The coffee sector doesn’t speak with one voice. It’s a patchwork of small worlds (producers, traders, brokers, roasters, distributors, baristas) that often eye each other warily. Everyone’s protecting their own turf. The dream of a united supply chain sounds more like sci-fi than reality.
This is where things get interesting, because it’s not just another rant. We want to offer a real perspective—a fresh start for an industry that desperately needs to evolve. Let’s go back to the question: “How on earth do we teach the consumer to recognize and appreciate quality coffee, and pay for its actual value?”
For me, the answer breaks down into two fundamental levels:
- Elevate the barista to a higher level, a hospitality professional who goes beyond hearts on Don’t get me wrong: latte art is cute, eye-catching, and can be a plus. But the profession is so much more than that.
We’re talking about hospitality skills, storytelling, marketing, financial management, product knowledge. A barista with these abilities is an entrepreneur, not just a button-pusher. They’re a professional who knows how to communicate the real value of what they serve—from espresso and cappuccino to alternative brew methods and the story behind the origin. In other words, someone who takes on the real mission: educate himself and the consumer.
- Make the consumer aware and demanding so they’re willing to pay a fair price. Unfortunately, awareness doesn’t happen Nor is it enough to throw up an Instagram post with a photo of a biological coffee bean and the hashtag #SaveThePlanet.
We need massive action, a team effort. It means investing resources (time, money, creativity) to educate with honest, transparent communication. No patronizing tone or “know-it-all expert” lines—rather a genuine attempt to spark curiosity and draw people in.
This is the big challenge: “How do we trigger a paradigm shift throughout the entire industry and, consequently, in the mind of the consumer?”
The answer might sound obvious: we need investment, training, time, and unity. But we often lack the courage to really do it. Too many people keep relying on the same old methods. “We’ve always done it this way” is the most destructive phrase ever coined, because it sets the industry on autopilot and stalls progress.
Let’s break it down. It’s clear that complaining alone doesn’t solve anything. We all need to move, and fast. If we don’t implement shared strategies, we’ll end up in an even bigger mess than the one we’re currently in.
So here are some concrete actions:
- Train baristas to be genuine “coffee ”
- Build cooperative networks among the various players in the supply
3. Invest in consumer education.
- Nurture a new class of “evolved coffee ”
- Adopt a humble and courageous
One of the main obstacles is the ego of those who believe they already know everything because they’ve been roasting or brewing coffee for 30 years. Or those who say, “My customers don’t care about quality, so why should I learn?” That’s exactly the mentality that’s going to drive us straight into the ground.
Borea: “We need a big dose of humility—a willingness to keep learning, challenging ourselves, making mistakes and trying again. And we need courage: stepping out of our comfort zone, looking our new reality in the eye, and making the tough decisions that have to be made”.
Borea adds: “Ultimately, we’re facing a reckoning that we can’t keep postponing. Coffee prices are high and will likely climb higher. New markets are emerging, which means less supply here at home. And when supply goes down while demand doesn’t, prices go up.
It’s the law of the market: we ignored it before, and now we’re suffering the consequences. What we can still do is join forces and decide to be an active part of the solution. Enough with blame games and last-minute knee-jerk reactions. We need a radical change of direction.
The barista isn’t the last cog in the machine, but rather the crucial bridge between the producer and the consumer. “You have to reinforce the bridge before you can roll your whole arsenal across it.”
The consumer isn’t a mindless automaton; they’re people who, if approached properly, can become valuable allies in recognizing and appreciating high-quality coffee.
The roaster isn’t the “head honcho” who secretly tweaks recipes in the back room, but a professional who has a duty to communicate, educate, and serve the market transparently.
Anyone who ignores this or thinks they can get by using outdated methods is bound to wake up one day and find their business model wrecked by costs, regulations, or more forward-thinking competitors.
We have to stop focusing on how to boost our margins by selling the same old mediocre coffee and start delivering real value. And to do this, we need to revamp everything from our communication strategies to our training, from our relationships with suppliers to how we run our cafés or roasting facilities”.
Borea adds: “It’s a revolution in the truest sense of the word. If we don’t make a move, we’ll end up like those industries that resisted change until it was too late.
It’s time to build (and sell) genuine value, not just empty talk. It’s time to educate consumers and make the entire supply chain accountable. It’s time to treat coffee for what it is: a precious food, the result of a long, delicate process, not a simple “stimulant” tossed out randomly.
Are we ready to take on this challenge? If yes, then let’s roll up our sleeves. If not, let’s at least own up to missing a unique opportunity and letting the sector crumble under the weight of its own inertia”.
Borea: “This is the final warning to all coffee professionals: the rules of the game have changed. Let’s band together, give true value to what we sell, train our baristas, educate our consumers, and brace for a future where coffee will increasingly be a luxury—but one that, if properly communicated and valued, people will be willing to pay for. It’s up to us, united, to push for real and profound change. Good luck!”
Matteo Borea
