Matteo Borea, strategic consultant and innovator in the coffee sector, co-owner of the historic La Genovese coffee roasting company in Albenga, Italy, and author of the blog matteoborea.it, a reference point for evolved coffee entrepreneurs, shares the impact on coffee industry of the new tariffs introduced by Donald Trump. According to Borea, it is now necessary to stop seeking the lowest price and instead start building perceived value that justifies higher prices for the clients. Below, we share his opinion.
The U.S. coffee tariffs: a new era
by Matteo Borea
MILAN – “On April 2, the Trump administration announced the implementation of new tariffs across the globe, including—obviously—coffee-producing countries. The reaction was immediate: alarmist headlines, indignant tweets, memes about $15 cappuccinos.”
“Coffee business entrepreneurs should, however, ask themselves a more serious question: what if this isn’t an isolated event, but a clear signal that the “old market” is dead?”
“Spoiler: it is. Coffee prices will never return to what they once were. And no, it’s not just because of the tariffs”.”
The numbers don’t lie: a brutal context
Borea adds: “First, it’s necessary to clarify the facts. According to the data, the tariffs will cause price increases of 10-35% for both green and roasted coffee in the United States. Most producing countries will face a 10% tariff, but some countries will encounter more dramatic situations:
“These tariffs apply from April 5, 2025, creating a clear fracture in the market. Even though these are rules for the American market, there will obviously be repercussions throughout the global economy.”
It’s important to consider the producers who are already fighting daily to survive and defend their rights, in addition to climate-related problems. Many companies exporting coffee to the US will see their sales decline. In short, this trade war initiated by Trump is just another signal that the sector is facing a new era”.
The illusion of returning to normal
Borea adds: “The market still seems trapped in a collective illusion: that prices must eventually drop. That it’s just a matter of waiting for the right moment to “buy better.”
The problem is that moment will never come. Because this isn’t a fluctuation, but a paradigm shift.
Climate change, financial speculation, fragile supply chains, deepening inequalities at origin, trade wars, geopolitical instability… every factor is pushing in the same direction: substance is becoming rarer and therefore more expensive.
And in the coffee world, “substance” means: real quality, solid relationships, dignified work, concrete sustainability.
Those who continue to seek margin by squeezing prices are only postponing the inevitable. And, what’s worse, they become complicit in a system that has prospered for decades through the exploitation of entire communities.
It’s undeniable that behind every dirt-cheap coffee bean, there’s often child labor, land expropriation, and fundamental human rights violations.
This ERA must end. Not only because it’s economically unsustainable, but because it’s morally unacceptable.
Matteo Borea: the reality no one wants to see
Borea: “Coffee futures will continue to fluctuate, certainly. There will still be days when the price drops and someone will rejoice as if they’ve won the lottery. But these movements will become increasingly disconnected from the reality on the ground.
The truth is that producing good coffee is becoming a titanic endeavor. Irregular temperatures are devastating entire harvests, erasing years of work in just a few days. Labor costs in producing countries are (rightfully) increasing, because those who harvest coffee also deserve a dignified life. Global logistics has become a nightmare of unpredictable costs and chronic delays. Extreme climate events are no longer the exception but the rule to contend with every season.
“And while all this is going on, what does anyone do? Continuing to seek the cheapest coffee possible, as if nothing were changing. As if this were just a difficult moment to overcome before returning to “normal.”
“It’s like betting on Blockbuster stocks while Netflix was emerging. It’s like investing in phone booths at the dawn of the smartphone era. It’s stubbornly looking backward while the future is already overwhelming the sector”.
The future belongs to builders, not buyers
“The future isn’t made for those who buy well. It’s made for those who build well.
In a rapidly changing world, the evolved coffee entrepreneur is one who accepts the challenge of change and transforms it into opportunity. They don’t wait for the system to adapt; they create their own system.”
“A strategic leap is needed, and it can’t be postponed any longer. It’s necessary to stop obsessively seeking the lowest price and instead start building perceived value that justifies higher prices. It’s essential to invest in truly sustainable innovation and customer experiences, because it’s clear that the product alone is no longer enough to differentiate oneself. It’s time to embrace excellence not as a marketing slogan, but as the only concrete strategy to survive in an increasingly polarized market.”
“And above all, it’s time to abandon the instrumental use of concepts like “environmental and social sustainability” to market products associated with human rights violations. Consumers are becoming more aware, and sooner or later this hypocrisy will be unmasked.”
“Prices will inevitably rise. A phenomenon that could prove positive for the sector. Only by affecting consumers’ wallets can one break through and create more value. But it’s necessary to have the courage to change mindsets, to escape the toxic spiral of the lowest price, to bet on a different future.”
Polarization is already here (and it can become an advantage)
“The market is showing an unequivocal trend: the middle range is disappearing.”
“On one side, commodity coffee is becoming more and more commoditized. On the other, quality coffee is increasingly perceived as such. This isn’t a crisis. It’s an opportunity for those who know where to position themselves.”
“Those who compete on price are preparing for a war lost from the start. Those who instead choose to compete on value still have a blue ocean to explore.”
“Consumers are changing. They’re becoming more aware, more demanding, more willing to pay for authentic experiences. They’re no longer just looking for a product; they’re seeking stories, emotions, meaning. And this is exactly what an evolved entrepreneur can offer.”
“The economic war that Trump inaugurated on April 2 is just one of many factors demonstrating how the sector is moving toward a new era: an era where substance will be increasingly rare and will have tremendous value amid a sea of appearances. Those who don’t understand this dynamic now will understand it when it’s too late.”
Practical actions, not complaints
“There are several concrete actions that operators can take immediately. It’s possible to start by preparing the company, customers, and partners for further price increases, which will come regardless of individual preferences. One can actively seek collaborations within the industry, engage with other roasters, share experiences and solutions instead of competing on price. It’s advisable to develop a completely new sourcing strategy, designed specifically for this evolving scenario.”
“But the truth is that none of these actions will work without a preliminary change in mindset. It’s not about “surviving” tariffs or the next crisis. It’s about reinventing the business to thrive in a completely new world.”
“But where to begin?”
“Now more than ever, vision, awareness, and strategy are needed. For those who see beyond the product and wish to build a business capable of adapting and thriving, it’s time to engage with other entrepreneurs who share this vision.”
“For this purpose, a new Facebook group has been created: “Profit Secrets for Coffee Roasters“, an exclusive space for sharing concrete strategies and discussing with other coffee professionals how to evolve business models in this new scenario.”
“It’s not a group for those seeking shortcuts or wanting to continue complaining about the market. It’s for those who have decided to take their destiny into their own hands”.
For more information: “Profit Secrets for Coffee Roasters”
Matteo Borea Finishs: “In the coming days, specific strategies tested with real clients to increase perceived value without losing margin will be shared exclusively in the group”
Matteo Borea
CAPS: the new proprietary system using capsules made of 85% recycled aluminium
