MILAN – Brazil will harvest a bumper crop this year, possibly the biggest in its history. In its first official forecast for the 2016/17 crop, issued on Wednesday, the National Supply Company, or Conab, a public enterprise of the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA), pegged Brazil’s next crop between 49.13 and 51.94 million bags, up by 13.6% to 20.1% percent on year.
If we consider the median estimate (50.5 million bags), this may be the second largest crop in the country’s history, slightly below the record crop of 50.8 million bags reaped in 2012.
The higher end of the estimate is close to 52 million bags – by far Brazil’s biggest crop ever, if the forecast turns to be true.
The estimate shows a growth from 17.8% to 24.4% in the Arabica coffee’s production, which covers 76.5% of the country’s total production.
CONAB expects between 37 and 40 million bags to be harvest, because of increasing 67,600 hectares of area under production, of adding areas that were in formation and being renewed, and of more favourable weather conditions.
“Favourable weather conditions in the main Arabica-producing regions, combined with the positive yield cycle, favour crops and explain productivity gains in most states,” Conab said in a statement.
Conilon (Robusta) production, 23.2% of Brazil’s total, is expected to be between 11.39 and 12.08 million bags, up 1.8 to 8%, when compared to the 2015 harvest. This result is mainly due to the recovery of productivity in the states of Espírito Santo, Bahia and Rondônia.
The Arabica coffee’s planted area totals 1.78 million hectares, 79.2% of the coffee plantations area. For the new harvest, a growth of 0.8% (13,400 hectares) is expected. Minas Gerais has the largest area with the species (1.2 million hectares), 67.8% of the Arabica coffee’s planted area in the country.
Conab said Robusta yields should recover in the south-eastern state of Espirito Santo, where coffee fields were hurt by high temperatures last year. Higher investments in the crop should also help production, Conab said.
Minas Gerais, Brazil’s biggest producer, is expected to harvest between 26.991 and 28.488 million bags (mostly of Arabica) up 21% to 27.7%. Production would increase in all regions except Zona da Mata, where a slightly decrease is expected due to the occurrence of an off-year in the biennial cycle.
Overall production in the state of Espírito Santo, Brazil’s biggest producer of Robusta, will total between 10.828 and 11.498 million bags, up by 1.2% to 7.5%. Robusta production is forecast between 7.466 and 7.928, down 3.8% or up 2.2% respectively. The Arabica crop is pegged between 3.362 (+14,4%) and 3.57 (+21.5%) million bags.
A big rebound in production is expected in São Paulo (+18.5%; +24.6%) and Bahia (+29.7%; 37.8%) as well.
Rondônia may stay flat on year, while Paraná is seen sharply down from last year’s harvest.
