MILAN – Brazil ’s current 2022/23 coffee crop is estimated at 63 million bags according to the median forecast of a survey led by Reuters, which polled 12 traders and analysts. Last year’s frosts, the worst in 30 years, and drought, hampered Arabica production in what was otherwise expected to be an on-year in Brazil’s biennial crop cycle.
The 2022/23 crop should have been “high”, and the next year, “low”. But this pattern could be reversed with a larger crop in 2023/24 after the frosts and drought. This is why survey participants expect the 2023/24 crop to rebound to 71 million bags.
New York Arabica futures prices are expected to end 2022 at $1.80 a lb, 20% below levels seen at the end of 2021, according to the median forecast of the survey.
Robusta coffee prices are expected to close the year at $1,900 per tonne, almost 20% down from 2021 levels.
In another report, Fernando Maximiliano, a coffee analyst for StoneX Brasil, warned on the risks of a third consecutive year of La Niña phenomenon. This is a rather unusual occurrence that has happened only twice times since the 1950s.
A resurgence of the La Niña phenomenon could delay the rainy season and cause irregular rains hampering the expected recovery in Arabica production.
According to Safras, Brazil reaped until July 26, Brazil reaped 75% of the 22/23 coffee crop, which corresponds to an advance of 9% compared to last week.
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