MILAN – According to the Coffee Industry Association of Brazil (Abic), domestic consumption will rise at a lower rate in 2019, after a 5% bump in 2018. However, the forecast may improve if the economy “recovers faster than expected” said the head of the industry group Ricardo Silveira in Sao Paulo.
Coffee consumption in Brazil reached an estimated 21 million bags in 2018, according to Abic. The premium segment helped boost consumption last year. Lower prices could be the driving force this year.
“If prices are falling for the coffee producer, they are falling in the supermarket shelves as well,” he said. “Maybe not as much, but they are,” said Silveira.
Abic said per capita coffee consumption in Brazil reached 6.02 kg of green coffee in 2018, up from 5.81 kg in previous year.
Looking at the upcoming 2019/20 coffee crop, Silveira said another good harvest can be expected despite an “off-year” in the biennial cycle of Arabicas.
“There were good rains in February that helped coffee fields to recover” from a dry spell occurred in December and January, he said.
Rainfall in Minas Gerais, Brazil’s biggest Arabica coffee growing region, was 64.3 mm in the past week or 346% of the historical average, said Somar Meteorologia in its latest report.
Brazilian coffee farmers are able to cover production costs even in the current cycle of low prices, but lower earnings could lead to a reduction of investment in inputs, Silveira concluded.
