SAO PAULO, Brazil – The harvesting of the 2022/23 robusta crop stepped up in May, majorly in the second fortnight of the month, says Cepea in its latest update. According to Cepea surveys, 40-50% of the expected output has been harvested in Rondônia. In EspÃrito Santo, 15-25% of the total expected has been harvested. Collaborators from ES reported a manpower shortage, which has been constraining the progress of the activity.
In general, the volume already available in the national spot market is still low, since most sellers have been away from the market. Until the end of May, farmers had only sold the necessary to pay for harvesting expenses – it is important to highlight that, with the valuation of robusta coffee in 2021, many farmers made cash flow.
In May, despite the disinterest of sellers, robusta quotations faded. Between April 29th and May 31st, the CEPEA/ESALQ Index for the robusta type 6, screen 13, EspÃrito Santo, dropped by 10.57%, to BRL 708.25 (USD 149.07)/bag on May 31st.
Besides the pressure from the increase in supply, the international prices for robusta coffee also decreased in some periods of May, influencing quotations in Brazil.
Arabica
The quotations for arabica coffee fluctuated widely in May. Early in the month, values were pressed down by technical movements, uncertainties related to the world demand and the beginning of the 22/23 harvesting.
On the other hand, in the second week of the month, values began to rise, pushed up by corrections and concerns about the arrival of a severe cold front to Brazil, with the possibility of frosts. Thus, on May 17, the CEPEA/ESALQ Index for arabica coffee type 6, delivered to São Paulo city, was around BRL 1,310.00 per 60-kilo bag, the highest level since March.
However, the cold front was not as severe as expected, pressing down arabica quotations. Thus, on May 24th, the CEPEA/ESALQ Index for arabica coffee dropped to the lowest level of the month, at BRL 1,218.65/bag. On the other hand, towards the end of May, forecasts for another cold front and technical factors resumed pushing up prices.
Thus, between April 29th and May 31st, the CEPEA/ESALQ Index for arabica coffee type 6, rose by 0.45%, to BRL 1,273.07 (USD 267.96)/bag on May 31st.
The wide fluctuations of arabica values and concerns about frosts kept sellers disinterested in closing deals. Besides, as the harvesting is still beginning, farmers are not expected to return to the market too soon. According to Cepea collaborators, less than 10% of the expected have been harvested, considering all the regions surveyed.
