El Nino may soon be back, bringing drought to parts of Asia and rains to South America.
Tropical Pacific temperatures have surpassed El Nino levels for a month and the Southern Oscillation Index, or SOI, has remained at or near thresholds for three months, Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology reported in a statement Tuesday.
Patterns are consistent with a weak event developing, New Zealand’s National Institute of Water & Atmospheric Research wrote in a separate report.
“Further warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean is likely, so it also remains possible that the ocean and atmosphere will fully couple in the coming weeks to months,” Australia’s bureau said in the fortnightly update. “If an El Nino is established, models suggest it will be weak, or moderate at best.”
El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (commonly called ENSO). El Ninos, caused by periodic warmings of the Pacific, can roil agricultural markets worldwide as farmers contend with drought across parts of Asia or too much rain in South America.
The last ENSO Phenomenon occurred in 2010.
