MILAN – Coffee futures bounced back yesterday from the lows set on Friday. In the first two days of the week, both markets moved higher, boosted by the continued uncertainty on fundamentals, which fuels volatility. In New York, the contract for December delivery gained 720 points in two days to close at 250.15 cents yesterday, Tuesday 5th November.
In London, the contract for January delivery of the Ice Robusta rose $93 between Monday and Tuesday to settle at $4,372.
On Friday, London and New York coffee futures had reached their lowest levels since mid-August and early September respectively.
Markets continue to monitor the situation in Brazil, where October rains have only partially reversed the damage caused by over four months of drought.
In Vietnam, the recent tropical storm Trami brought heavy rains but no serious damage to coffee growing areas, where the harvest has only just begun.
Last spring’s severe drought (the worst in the last 10 years) has seriously affected the development of the crop, which is expected to mark a further decline.
Data from the European Coffee Federation (ECF) – as reported by analyst Hedgepoint – show a recovery in green coffee stocks in the major coffee ports of Europe, which rose to 8.85 million bags in August, partially recovering from the historic lows seen in the first months of the year, but still below 2023 levels.
The positive trend affected all coffee categories, but was more pronounced for Washed Arabicas and Robustas, reflecting higher volumes imported from Central America, East Africa and Brazil.
European green coffee stocks had fallen to 6.4 million bags in March 2024, the lowest level in decades.
Since then, imports have picked up pace, partly due to the need to replenish stocks ahead of the entry into force of the EUDR, the postponement of which has meanwhile been decided and is about to be approved by the European Parliament
Meanwhile, preparations are in full swing for the 12th International Coffee Week (Sic), which will be held in Belo Horizonte, the capital of the state of Minas Gerais, from 20 to 22 November.
The theme of this year’s event is ‘How climate, science and new consumers are shaping the future of coffee’.
The show is expected to attract around 20,000 professional visitors to the Expominas exhibition centre. The event will also feature specialist workshops and the finals of the Brazilian Coffee Championships.
