MILAN – Another day of consolidation for coffee futures, which closed slightly lower on both markets yesterday, Monday 31st March. In New York, the May ICE Arabica coffee was 20 points down at 379,75 cents. In London, the May contract lost $68 to close at $5,269.
Coffee futures markets, like all other markets, are in a state of limbo as they await US President Donald Trump’s decisions on tariffs, which will be announced tomorrow.
Meanwhile, traders continue to sift through forecasts and estimates from the markets.
Rabobank has published a new report predicting a significant drop in Brazilian Arabica production for the 2025/26 crop year.
At the end of a trip to the producing regions, the Dutch bank’s specialists determined that adverse weather conditions during February and part of March have further reduced harvest expectations.
Rabobank added that despite the bad weather in Rondônia, Brazil’s production of canefora coffee (robusta and conilon) is expected to grow in 2025/26.
A similar field study by Marex Spectron came to different conclusions. According to the UK-based financial services company, Brazil’s coffee production in 2025/26 will be between 63.4 and 69.4 million bags.
The Arabica crop will be between 38 and 42.1 million bags, and the Robusta crop between 25.4 and 27.3 million bags. Lower Arabica production will be offset by higher Robusta production.
The supply of Brazilian coffee will be sufficient to meet global demand, says Marex, but not enough to replenish stocks. The UK firm is also concerned about recent weather trends.
The lack of rain in recent weeks, coupled with high temperatures, is likely to affect this year’s crop and could also limit the potential of the 2026/27 crop.
