MILAN – Coffee futures rebounded in the first session of March after declines in late February, with strong gains on both sides of the ocean. In New York, the May contract gained 3.7% yesterday, Monday 3rd March, to close at 386.65 cents. In London, May Ice Robusta coffee futures gained more than 2.9% to close at $5,486.
Prices were boosted by low rainfall in Minas Gerais, Brazil’s main Arabica producing region, at a crucial time for the new crop. Added to this is the low level of certified stocks on both exchanges.
Still on the subject of stocks, inventories in Brazilian warehouses are now at an all-time low.
“We never had such low stocks in February, a period that is still distant from the new crop,” said Willian Cesar Freiria, sales manager at Cocapec, Brazil’s third largest coffee co-op, in an interview with Reuters.
Similar comments were made by Brazil’s number one cooperative, Cooxupé.
Coffee farmers have already sold 90% of the 2024 crop, Luiz Fernando dos Reis, sales superintendent for Cooxupe, told Reuters. “What they have left is the lowest amount we ever saw in our records.”
Data from Vietnam’s Ministry of Agriculture shows a further decline in shipments in the first two months of the year. Vietnam’s coffee exports totalled 284,000 tonnes (4.73 million bags), down 28.4% from the same period last year. On the other hand, earning soared to $1.58 billion – 26.2% year-on-year.
The average export price is estimated at $5,575 per tonne. In the domestic market, green coffee beans reached a historic peak of 134,000 VND ($5.36) per kilogram in early March.
By March 3, prices remained strong at 128,000–130,000 VND ($5.12–$5.20) per kilogram. Germany, Italy and Japan remain the main destinations, with market shares of 16.6%, 9.4% and 8.2% respectively.
On the other hand, exports from the island of Sumatra, Indonesia’s largest coffee producer, are recovering strongly. In January, shipments rose by more than 450% to 307,490 bags.
This brings the total for the first 10 months of the 2024/25 crop year (April-March) to 2,838,843 bags, an increase of 46.13% over the same period last year.
