CIMBALI
Friday 28 February 2025
  • La Cimbali

Coffee futures markets rally to new record highs, with New York at 373.40 cents, London at $5,734

In New York, the Ice Arabica March contract gained a further 1.9% to close at 373.40 cents. In London, the March contract rose 2.2% to close at a new high of $5,734

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MILAN — Coffee futures markets continue to soar to new all-time highs, with New York trading above $3.70 and London breaking through the $5,700 mark. Yesterday, Thursday 30th January, the Ice Arabica March contract gained a further 1.9% to close at 373.40 cents. Negative weather news from Brazil, where dry spells and rising temperatures are forecast for the coming weeks, contributed to the gains.

On Tuesday, Conab said, in its first estimate for 2025/26, that Brazil’s coffee crop would fall 4.4% to a 3-year low of 51.81 million bags.

“The real story is that supply has fallen much faster than demand. It really is that simple,” said Trishul Mandana, managing director for Volcafe, in an interview with Reuters.

According to Haroldo Bonfá – market analyst and director of Pharos Consultoria – New York may rise to as high as to 3.84 cents. “What may cool things down a little will be Cecafé’s January export figures,’ explained the analyst.

In London, the March coffee futures contract rose 2.2% to close at a new high of $5,734. Robusta prices are also boosted by weak sales from Vietnam, where the Lunar New Year celebrations are still underway.

On the consumption front, there was a significant increase in consumption in the major Asian markets, starting with China, where domestic consumption – according to statistics from the US Department of Agriculture (Usda) – will amount to 6.2 million bags in 2024/25, an increase of more than 40% over the past five years.

USDA sees domestic consumption in Indonesia to reach 4.8 million bags this year, up more than 10.3% over the past five years. In Vietnam, consumption is expected to reach 3.6 million bags this year, a third higher than five years ago.

The Middle East market is also buoyant, particularly Saudi Arabia, where consumption – according to some statistical sources – has grown by over 20% in the last four years, reaching 1.44 million bags in 2024.

 

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