MILAN – Arabica coffee futures recovered in yesterday’s session, on Thursday, 20 March 2025. In New York, the main contract for May delivery rose marginally (+0.3%) to close at two-week high of 390.95 cents. London Robusta coffee futures lost $30 to settle at $5,497. Brazilian weather continues to support prices in the New York market. According to the Brazilian cooperative giant Cooxupé – based in Guaxupé, in the southwest of the state of Minas Gerais – climate change will affect production again this year.
“Until the first week of February we were optimistic, but there were 40 days without rain and high temperatures,” said Luiz Fernando dos Reis, commercial superintendent of Cooxupé, quoted by Reuters, during an interview at an event promoted by the cooperative.
According to the president of Cooxupé, Carlos Augusto Rodrigues de Melo, the impact of the drought is irreversible, and high temperatures “are a disaster”.
Vice-president of Cooxupé, Osvaldo Bachião Filho, also quoted by Reuters, detailed how high temperatures affect the plant and grains.
“With temperatures above 32°, the plant takes up to a week to return to normal, if there is humidity. But what happened in February 2025 was worse than in November2023, with record temperatures and in the worst phase, of full coffee development,” he said.
According to Bachião Filho, the high temperatures have harmed the development of trees, which will have fewer branches and the impact will also be felt in the 2026/27 harvest.
Rabobank’s latest monthly report is less pessimistic. “Following a rainy January, the main coffee-producing regions experienced drier and warmer weather in February,” writes Rabobank’s Senior Analyst Guilherme Morya.
“This period is crucial for coffee bean development. The impacts have been limited so far, and the return of rains in mid-March has brought relief. More rain is expected in the coming weeks, aiding bean development.”
In February, Brazil exported 3.3m bags (60kg) of coffee, a decrease of 18% MOM and 10% YOY, reports Rabobank. In the first two months of the year, the country exported a total of 7.3m bags, 5.4% lower compared to the same period in 2024.
“This decline in exports was expected given the current scenario of limited stocks in Brazil. This situation is likely to continue at least until the 2025/26 Brazilian harvest enters the market,” says the report.
