MILAN – Coffee futures are always fluctuating in a market that continues to be heavily influenced by the weather developments in Brazil and Vietnam. Yesterday, Thursday 31 October, both market returned into negative territory, weighed down by the latest news from Brazil.
Also contributing to price pressure was the performance of the real, the Brazilian currency, at its lowest level in over two and a half months against the dollar.
In New York, the contract for December delivery lost 370 points (-1.5%) to end the day at 249.60 cents. In London, coffee futures for January delivery closed down $84 at $4,369.
In Brazil, Climatempo says that heavy rains are expected in Minas Gerais, the main Arabica producing area, beginning on Saturday. Reports from the Brazilian coffee belt confirm that the return of rain last month has resulted in good flowering.
However, it remains to be seen whether this will result in a good fruit load next year.
“It was a concentrated and large flowering, a good one,” said Carlos Augusto Rodrigues de Melo, head of co-op Cooxupe, Brazil’s leading coffee exporter, in an interview with Reuters. “But as old farmers say, flower is not coffee,” he noted, adding that a historical drought and high temperatures in the last months punished trees.
Rainfall in Brazil has consistently been below average since April causing the worst drought in over 40 years.
In Vietnam, Tropical Storm Trami briefly touched down in central Vietnam, but the coffee harvest, now only 5% complete, escaped largely unscathed.
More rain is expected in the next week, increasing the probability of further flooding and crop damage, LSEG Commodities Research & Forecast said in a note.
According to Indonesian government trade data from Sumatra, the leading coffee producing island in Indonesia, coffee exports for the month of September were 76.4% higher on-year, for a total of 369,332 bags.
Cumulative robusta coffee exports for the first six months of the current April 2024 to March 2025 coffee year amounted to 1,268,499 bags, 14.28% higher than the same period in the previous year.
