MILAN – Coffee futures soared as world exports hit new all-time highs: on the day, the ICO released its new export figures for coffee year 2023/24, futures markets in London and New York recorded a sharp surge driven by climatic, technical and financial factors. Yesterday, Thursday, 7 November, the contract for December delivery in New York gained 1,165 points, to close at 260.40 cents, its highest in three weeks.
In London, Ice Robusta’s main contract for January delivery appreciated by $179 to settle at $4,486.
Contributing to this sudden rebound were weather reports from Vietnam, where Typhoon Yinxing is expected to bring heavy rains to the Central Highlands area, which may affect harvesting operations.
Market players also continue to monitor closely the development of the new crop in Brazil following the flowering in the coffee belt.
One should note that the first reliable estimates on next year’s crop will not arrive until January.
Further support for prices was also provided by the fall of the dollar against the real.
Vietnam exported 1.15 million metric tons of coffee in the first 10 months of calendar year 2024, down 11.2% from the same period in 2023, government data released on Wednesday showed.
Coffee export revenue in the same period rose 39% to a record $4.6 billion, the General Statistics Office said in a report.
According to recent data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, Vietnam’s agricultural exports for the first 10 months of 2024 reached $51.74 billion, up 20.2% compared to the same period in 2023.
The sector recorded a trade surplus of approximately $15.2 billion, marking a significant increase of 62.2% from the previous year.
Do Ha Nam, Vice Chairman of the Vietnam Coffee-Cocoa Association, described 2024 as an “extraordinary year.” For the first time, Vietnamese Robusta coffee fetched a higher price than Arabica on the world market.
Domestic prices have been falling in Vietnam since the beginning of the new crop season. “If the price falls below 100,000 dong per kilogram, beans hoarding like in early 2024 may recur, with people holding on to beans while waiting for higher prices,” said Nguyen Ngoc Quynh, deputy chief of the Mercantile Exchange of Vietnam, quoted by Reuters. One trader offered 5% black and broken-grade 2 robusta at the same level as London prices to the January contract.
