MILAN – Coffee futures markets remain under pressure. The soaring dollar and financial uncertainties continue to set a negative tone to coffee prices both in New York and in London. Yesterday, Arabica coffee futures in New York closed unchanged in the first session of the week.
The main contract for December delivery settled at 146.05 cents per lb, slightly above a 9-month low of 145.40 cents reached on Thursday. Improved weather conditions in the Brazilian coffee belt are boosting prospects for the 2024/25 crop.
According to Somar Meteorologia, Minas Gerais – the biggest producer of the Arabica variety – has received 63.8 mm of rainfall in the past week, or 190% of the historical average.
Maxar Technologies forecasts moderate to heavy rain this week in Brazil’s main coffee growing region, which should boost soil moisture for cherry growth and trigger widespread flowering of the new crop.
London posted its seventh straight session in the negative terrain. The main contract for November delivery lost $34 to close the day at a six-month low of $2,325.
According to reports, there have been generally favourable weather in top Robusta producer Vietnam where the harvest should begin to gather pace next month.
In a supportive factor for Robusta coffee, Vietnam’s General Department of Customs reported on September 28 that Vietnam coffee exports in the first nine months of this year (Jan-Sep) fell -7.3% y/y to 1.27 tons, or 21.17 million bags.
However, the General Statistics office of Vietnam have at the same time reported the country’s coffee revenue value for the same period was 0.70% higher on year, at a total of approximately US$3.10 billion.
The Vietnam Customs Authority have also reported that Vietnam’s cumulative export performance for the full October 2022 to September 2023 coffee year was 423,772 bags or 1.55% higher than in 2021/22, at a total of 27,705,399 bags.
The monthly survey by Safras showed growers committed 50% of the potential of Brazil’s 2023 crop until September 18. This percentage involves, besides physical sales, exchange operations and lock-ins with trading companies, as well as negotiation rollovers from the past crop.
Arabica coffee sales reached 47% of production, below the same period last year and the 5-year average, both at 51%.
The sales of conillon jumped to 57% of the 2023 crop and already exceed the 55% sold in the same period last year and the 5-year average.
