MILAN – Weather news from Brazil led to a rally in the coffee markets yesterday, Monday 12 August. The New York contract for September delivery closed up 680 points at 240.85 cents, after hitting an intraday high of 249.45 cents. The most active contract for December delivery gained 830 points ending at 238.55 cents.
September Ice Robusta coffee appreciated (September) by 4.8 percent (+$206) to settle at $4,532. The contract for November delivery gained $197 ending the day at $4,359.
Experts say that the frosts that affected some localised areas of Brazil’s coffee belt were light with no resemblance to the last major frost event in 2021 that destroyed hundreds of hectares of plantations.
According to Rural Climate, however, a new wave of intense cold is expected to hit coffee-growing areas in the morning of Tuesday, 13 August.
This day has been indicated from the beginning, by some meteorologists, as the as the most risky for the crops, and it is feared that the damage could be even greater this time.
The low temperatures would pose a further threat to the coffee trees, adding to the stress already caused by the prolonged drought.
According to Safras & Mercado, almost 92% of the new Brazil coffee crop had already been harvested, as of the 6th August 2024, compared to 86% last year.
Based on the new forecast for a crop of 66.04 million bags, about 60.76 million bags of the new crop coffee have been harvested so far, of which 20.50 million bags of Robusta coffee, whose harvesting is virtually completed (99%), and approximately 40.26 million bags of Arabica (88%).
Meanwhile, from Vietnam comes the export figures for July, which grew by 12.4% last month compared to a year ago to 1,283,033 bags.
In the first seven months of the year, exports totalled 16,322,550 bags, down 9.7% from the same period last year.
During the first 10 months of the 2023/24 coffee year, exports amounted to 22,224,532 bags, down 12.65% compared to the same period in 2022/23.
