MILAN – In its preliminary forecast for coffee year 2024/25, issued on Friday, Brazil’s food and statistics agency Conab pegs this year’s crop at 58.08 million bags, a 5.5% increase reflecting the positive year the biennial Arabica cycle.
According to the the state-owned company, the 2021 and 2022 harvests were characterised by lower productivity levels, due to adverse weather conditions, such as droughts and frosts.
The situation improved last year allowing productivity to return to higher levels. However, this year crop would still be below the record levels reached in 2020 and 2018, of 63 and 61.6 million bags respectively.
Conab said Arabica coffee output is set to total 40.75 million bags this year, a 4.7% increase from 2023, while Robusta production is seen up 7.2% to 17.33 million bags.
The total cultivated area is estimated at 2.25 million hectares, a 0.8% increase over the previous harvest.
The area in formation should total approximately 336.3 thousand hectares, while the crops in production are to cover over 1.92 million hectares, down 7% and up 2.4% respectively.
The area in production for Arabica amounts to 1.53 million hectare (+2.7%).
Robusta areas in production should reach 391.657 (+1%).
Average productivity is expected to reach 30.3 bags per hectare, up 3% on year.
Arabica yields will reach 26.7 bags per hectare, up 2% from the previous season. Robusta yields will recover to 44.3 bags per hectare, up 6.2%.
The state of Minas Gerais, Brazil’s largest Arabica producer, is expected to reap 29.18 million bags, up 0.6% on year.
In Espirito Santo, the country’s largest Robusta producer, overall production is estimated at 15.015 million bags (+ 15.4%). Robusta output will 11.06 million bags, up 9%. The Arabica crop will surge by 38.2% to 3.95 million bags, reflecting a positive year in the biennial cycle.
Sao Paulo is expected to harvest 5.4 million bags of Arabica, a 7.4% increase over year.
Production in Bahia will total 3.6 million bags (+6.4%), of which 1.22 of Arabica (+10.6%) and 2.39 (+4.4%) or Robusta.
Rondonia will produce 3.2 million bags of Robusta coffee, up 5.1% on year.
“The initial figures point to a positive influence of the effects of an ‘on’ year, which naturally implies higher agricultural yields,” Conab said in a statement as it released its first forecast for this year’s crop.
