MILAN – In its third survey of the 2019-2020 coffee crop, Brazil’s National Supply Company, CONAB cut its estimate of this year’s coffee production by almost 2 million bags to 48.99 million bags from 50.9 million bags projected in May. This would mark a 20.5% drop from last year, when Brazil produced a record crop of 61.66 million bags.
According to CONAB, the fall in production was due to a higher than expected fall in Arabica production, which was due to the negative biannual nature of the crop, as well as decrease in the overall planted and productive area and by a summer drought in December and January.
Arabica production is pegged at 34.47 million bags, down 27.4% compared to the 2018 crop. The Conilon crop should reach a new all-time high of 14.52 million bags, with an increase of 2.5% over last year.
Planted area is estimated by CONAB at 2.13 million ha (-1.2%) of which 1.73 million of Arabica (-0.9%) e 398,810 ha of Robusta (-2.5).
The area under production is down by 2.8% to 1.8 million hectares, while the area in formation increased by 8.5% to 320,000 ha.
Arabica productivity is sharply down (-25%) to 23.78 bags per ha. Robusta productivity rose to a new high of 40 bags per ha.
With the exception of Rondonia, all major producing states saw a fall in production. Minas Gerais, Brazil’s leading producer of Arabica, harvest 24.52 million bags down 26.5% on year.
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