MILAN – In its fourth and final report for crop year 2019/20, Brazil’s National Food Supply Company (Conab) revised its estimate of coffee production to 49.31 million bags, slightly up from 48.99 million bags in September. Arabica coffee production was reduced to 34.30 million bags from 34.47 million bags in the previous estimate in September, down 27.8% on year.
Robusta coffee production was revised up to 15.01 million bags from 14.52 million bags seen in the previous report, up 5.95 on year.
The change was mainly due to robusta coffee production, which was revised up to 15.01 million bags from 14.52 million bags seen in September, while arabica coffee output was reduced to 34.30 million bags from 34.47 million bags, the agency said in a report.
The reduction is mainly due to the influence of the negative year in the Arabica’s biennial cycle.
Conab said that other factors, such as a strong dry spell early in the year and a borer beetle infestation, contributed to the smaller crop.
All major coffee states saw a fall in production, with the exception of Rondonia. Production in Minas Gerais fell 26.4% to 24.55 million bags. The total coffee crop in Espirito Santo was 1.8% down 13.498 million bags. However, Robusta production in the state rose 16.8% to 10.5 million bags.
Production in Sao Paulo, the second largest producer of Arabica, fell sharply (-36.8%) to 3 million bags.
The official estimate for 2019 is rather smaller than projections by independent consultants.
Private consultancy Safras & Mercado presently estimates Brazil’s 2019 at 57.05 million 60-kg bags from 58.9 million bags seen in April. S&M projects end-stocks from the 2019 season at only 2.32 million bags, compared to 3.17 million bags a year earlier.
It said coffee farmers have sold 71% of their 2019 coffee so far, above the five-year average of 68% for this time of the year.
