MILAN – In its second official estimate, Conab forecasts the Brazilian coffee production for crop year 2021/22 at 48.8 million bags, down 22.6% from last year’s bumper crop of 63.1 million bags. This is close to the upper limit of Conab’s first estimate that pegged production between 43.85 and 49.58 million bags. Looking closer into the figures, Arabica production is seen at 33.4 million bags, a 31.5% decrease over last year.
On the other hand, the Robusta crop will reach an all-time high of 15.4 million bags, up 7.9% from 2020/21. Overall productivity (Arabica+Robusta) will plummet by 25.4% to 25 bags/ha. Arabica productivity is seen sharply down at 23 bags/ha (-28.5%). As for Robustas, yields are forecast at a record 41.1 bags/ha.
Coffee area (Arabica + Robusta) will exceed 2.2 million hectares (+2.6%), of which 1.8 million ha of Arabica coffee and 410,000 ha of Robusta.
The harvested area is seen down 3.2% at 1.82 million hectares, of which 1.45 million hectares of Arabica coffee (-4.3%) and 375.989 hectares of Robusta (+ 1.9%).
Several growers have also pruned their coffee fields at above-average rates after the record Arabica crop in 2020, thus reducing the area to be harvested.
Drier-than-normal weather in Brazil all along the development period for the crop, as well as the off-year in Arabica’s biennial production cycle, are the reasons for the smaller production this year, Conab said.
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