Considering prices too low, sellers leave the market and focus on crops, Cepea

SAO PAULO, Brazil – Arabica coffee prices – which were higher than BRL 1,100 per 60-kg bag a year ago – have been around BRL 800.00/bag in October, level considered low by coffee growers, points out CEPEA in its most recent report. It is important to mention that the beans currently available in the national spot market come from crops treated with inputs purchased at very high prices.

Thus, many sellers have been disinterested in trading coffee, and the few deals being closed were for low volumes and due to cash flow needs.

It is important to highlight that, currently, many growers have no sales needs, since, at this time of the year, they do not have many expenses in the short term. And as most of the output from this season is stocked, some of the agents consulted by Cepea have been concerned about selling it.

Sellers have been focused on crops and the expectations for the 2024/25 season. Crops are developing in Brazil, and growers expect the weather favors production. The recent rains are supposed to favor crop management, such as fertilizing.

However, some growers are still concerned about both the possible effects of the heat wave that hit Brazil in late September and high rainfall this month. Another blooming event was expected in arabica crops in the first half of October, in nearly all the regions that produce this variety, favored by the recent rains.

As for robusta coffee, Cepea collaborators reported that, in Espírito Santo State, despite the good blooming, the recent high temperatures and frequent storms may have damaged crops. In Rondônia State, the blooming induced in mid-July and August is turning into flower buds already, but a significant volume was burned by the heat wave from late September.

PRICES – On Oct. 13th, the CEPEA/ESALQ Index for arabica coffee type 6, delivered to São Paulo city, closed at BRL 819.47 (USD 160.93) per 60-kg bag, 5.07% higher than that on Sept. 29th. For robusta coffee, the CEPEA/ESALQ Index (Espírito Santo) for the type 6, screen 13, closed at BRL 636.45 (USD 124.99)/bag, 1.38% down in the same comparison.