Ecuador’s coffee production in marketing year (MY) 2016/17 (April/March) is forecast at 201,000 bags (60-kilograms per bag) on a Green Bean Equivalent (GBE) basis, down 16,000 bags or seven percent lower from the MY 2015/16 (revised) estimate, according to a report issued earlier this month by USDA’s Global Agricultural Information Network.
FAS Quito is revising downward its MY 2015/16 coffee production estimate to 217,000 bags; we are estimating production down 15 percent compared to MY 2014/15 levels.
Production is suffering due to lower yields as a result of a lack of investment in rejuvenating plantations. Ecuador’s total domestic coffee consumption in MY 2016/17 is forecast at 243,000 bags GBE, down 24,000 bags or nine percent lower than the MY 2015/16 estimate of 267,000 bags.
Total domestic consumption is seen as slipping as a result of slower Ecuadorian economic growth. FAS Quito understands that Ecuador maintains coffee stocks of around 60,000 bags GBE.
The government however does not manage or warehouse these stocks. Rather the local soluble coffee manufacturers are the entities responsible for these coffee stocks.
Ecuador’s coffee exports in MY 2016/17 are forecast at 595,000 bags GBE, down a whopping 246,000 bags or 29 percent lower compared to the MY 2015/16 (revised) estimate of 841,000 bags.
FAS Quito is revising downward its MY 2015/16 coffee export estimate by 49,000 bags GBE or six percent lower compared to MY 2014/15 levels.
Ecuador exported in MY 2015/16 an estimated 100,000 bags of coffee (Arabica and Robusta) beans, 739,000 bags of soluble coffee (about 88 percent of total exports), and some 2,000 bags of roasted-ground coffee.
Arabica bean exports account for about seven percent of total exports, while Robusta represent five percent. Imports in MY 2016/17 are forecast at 638,000 bags, down 60,000 bags or nine percent lower compared to the MY 2015/16 (revised) estimate of 698,000 bags.
