The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral—neither El Niño nor La Niña, according to the latest updates from the Bureau of Meteorology of the Australian Government (BOM).
Most models predict a neutral ENSO pattern will persist through the southern autumn and winter.
Most atmospheric and oceanic indicators of ENSO are at neutral levels. Sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific are close to average for this time of year.
Beneath the surface, the tropical Pacific Ocean is slightly warmer than average, but well within the neutral range.
Trade winds are close to average
In the atmosphere, cloud and pressure patterns remain weakly La Niña-like, but trade winds are close to average.
Climate models indicate that tropical Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures will continue to rise, but remain ENSO neutral for the remainder of the southern autumn and winter.
IOD is neutral
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral. Most models indicate a neutral IOD is likely for autumn and early winter. However, two of six models indicate a negative IOD is possible during winter.
During negative IOD events, southern Australia typically experiences a wetter than average winter-spring.
Climate model outlooks for ENSO and the IOD have lower accuracy during autumn than at other times of the year. Hence, current model outlooks of these climate drivers should be viewed with some caution.
