MILAN – The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral, with all ENSO indicators currently within the ENSO-neutral range, according to the Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology.
Climate model outlooks indicate the tropical Pacific Ocean is likely to remain ENSO-neutral through the southern summer and autumn.
Most models surveyed expect the tropical Pacific Ocean to warm during this period, meaning La Niña is the least likely scenario for winter/spring 2017.
It should be noted that model outlooks that span the southern autumn period tend to have lower accuracy than outlooks issued at other times of the year.
This means outlooks beyond May should be used with some caution.
The Indian Ocean Dipole has little influence on Australian climate during the months from December to April.
