BRIGG, North Lincolnshire, UK – Private label coffee roaster Lincoln & York has crafted an article on coffee trend predictions for the new year. Using industry insight and expertise, Coffee Buyer Chris Tough explores trends set to grow this year, new products to hit the market and emerging trends for 2024.
By Chris Tough, Coffee Buyer, Lincoln & York
Whilst the future is traditionally read in tea leaves, as 2023 comes to a close, we’re looking to coffee to make our predictions for what we can expect to see from the coffee industry next year.
Despite the cost of living continuing to squeeze household budgets this year, there have been no signs that this is impacting consumers’ coffee buying habits, with the out of home (OOH) coffee market attracting an additional 1.56 million consumers since last year. 1
It’s with this level of resilience and an ambitious outlook for further growth that we look forward to an exciting future for coffee in 2024. But what are the trends we can expect to see?
Coffee trends: Brewing growth in cascara
Recently declassified as a novel food, cascara is now more widely available as a ready to drink product and is set for expansion in 2024. With its potential to strengthen the coffee trade economy, helping coffee farmers reduce waste and add income, this byproduct which was once thrown away is now set to take centre stage.
Often called the coffee cherry, cascara is the skin and pulp of the coffee fruit and offers great potential to decrease the coffee industry’s carbon footprint whilst also providing an exciting new option for consumers to enjoy.
In terms of flavour, cascara’s unique taste lies somewhere between coffee and tea. Whilst not as strong or rich as coffee, it’s full of fruity, slightly floral, and earthy notes whilst being packed with antioxidants and significantly less caffeine than coffee. With its sustainability and health benefits, plus a novel taste profile, cascara will be one to watch in the year ahead.
A boost in opportunities for coffee extracts
Offering the perfect solution for efficiency and speed of service, 2024 could be the year that more widespread use of coffee extracts and coffee concentrates comes to the fore.
Whilst there are many iterations of coffee concentrates and different methods of extraction, all produce a concentrated coffee essence which can be used in cold coffees to avoid brewing and chilling an espresso for every serve.
The popularity of cold coffee shows no signs of cooling off, with the iced coffee market currently valued at £178.9m, up 37%,2 meaning more suppliers across out of home and retail are looking for quicker ways to create high quality iced coffees and RTD products, including dairy-free alternatives.
The use of coffee extracts not only speeds up service and guarantees consistency of flavour: it also enables businesses to grow and scale at speed, meaning its potential goes way beyond just cold coffee. This offers huge opportunities throughout the industry, and 2024 could be the year we see coffee extracts and cold coffee really take off.
A year for education
With coffee bean sales up +14.3% since last year, this trend is set to continue in 2024 with added support from the grocery sector in educating consumers around coffee buying and drinking. Whilst 52% of UK coffee drinkers continue to opt for instant coffee, we are seeing growth in other options as consumers upgrade their at-home coffee in search of a fresher, fuller flavour.3
To support and encourage this shift, we could see retailers taking inspiration from the wine aisles when it comes to their coffee ranges. This could mean increased displays and merchandising in store to educate consumers about origins, roasts and flavour profiles, helping shoppers tailor their coffee purchases to their own tastes, as well as experiment with new flavours present in coffee.
Just as people have a preferred wine, we predict that this will empower consumers to develop a deeper understanding of coffee that goes beyond whether they simply like the flavour or not.
A renewed focus on sustainability
Whilst sustainably sourced coffee is by no means a new phenomenon, we expect consumers will become even more conscious of the carbon footprint of their coffee in 2024, with 63% of consumers actively looking for sustainably sourced coffee options.4
Sustainable sourcing has never been more important, with the land suitable for growing coffee predicted to decline by 50% between now and 2050 if nothing changes, whilst demand for coffee in the same period is expected to double.5
However, new EU legislation coming in to force at the end of 2024 is set to make a start towards tackling this problem. From December, coffee produced from land which has been subject to deforestation in the last three years will not be accepted onto the European market, forcing coffee companies to prioritise the sustainable sourcing of their produce.
At Lincoln & York, over 80% of the coffee we sell is certified and we are members of World Coffee Research, contributing to their important work discovering new more climate resistant varietals. But, whilst individual efforts are worthwhile, meaningful change requires commitment from the wider industry, which will hopefully become more widespread in 2024.
A future of feel good coffee
Whether it’s added health benefits through functional coffees or a philanthropic pick me up by supporting cause-led brands, consumers will continue to look for coffee that offers more than a great taste and a caffeine kick in 2024.
Functional coffees, created by blending coffee with ingredients such as botanicals and proteins for added health and wellbeing benefits, achieved significant growth this year. With options such as antioxidant-rich turmeric lattes and CBD coffees also attracting consumer attention, it will be interesting to see if this growth continues or if we’re experiencing a classic case of fashion over function.
For a different kind of feel good, ‘coffee with a cause’ brands will continue to thrive, with more cause led brands expected to emerge in 2024. As well as contributing towards great causes, such as Combat to Coffee’s support of veterans struggling with life outside of service or providing homeless people with barista training and job opportunities in the case of Change Please, tying your brand with a charitable focus is a great way to gain customer loyalty.
While we saw coffee finally overtake tea as the UK’s hot drink of choice in 2023,6 we look forward to another strong year for the industry and discovering more exciting ways we can continue to support brands and operators in 2024 and beyond.
References:
1 Kantar Out of Home | Total Coffee | Measure | 52 w/e 1 October 2023
2 Lincoln & York analysis, NIQ Scantrack – MAT WE 26.08.2023
3 NIQ data 52 w/e 23 Sep 2023
4 Lincoln & York research undertaken by Opinium Research. Sample size 2,000 UK adults. Fieldwork dates 27th – 29th September 2022
5 Projected Shifts in Coffea arabica Suitability among Major Global Producing Regions Due to Climate Change (2015)
6 The Statista Global Consumer Survey 2023
