MILAN – Coffee futures prices continued their downward trajectory this week with New York recording four consecutive sessions in negative territory. The May contract closed yesterday, Thursday, 27 February, at 373.60 cents, well below the $4 per pound threshold. In London, Robusta coffee futures for May delivery started the week losing $310 between Monday and Tuesday.
After recovering marginally in Wednesday’s session, it returned to the red yesterday (-$34) ending the day at $5,376.
According to traders, the trend reversal observed over the last days is a predictable pullback, after the all-time highs reached earlier this month.
“The technical indicators suggest further downside pressure in the near term,” brokerage firm Sucden Financial noted in a report.
Below-normal rainfall in the coffee belt support prices, according to reports. The weather evolution in Brazil will stay in focus in the coming months, with the 2025/26 crop development at its final stages.
Escritório Carvalhaes once again highlights the limited availability of coffee on the Brazilian market, which will make it difficult to meet domestic and export demand until the new crop begins to be marketed.
Meanwhile, the authoritative Safras & Mercado estimate that as of 11 February, coffee farmers have sold around 85% of the estimated total production of 66.04 million bags from this current Brazil coffee crop, compared with 79% at the same time last year and 82% over the last five years.
Meanwhile, sales of the 2025/26 crop have been slow at 13% of the crop, well behind the 4-year average of 22%, which suggests a lack of new supply and an unwillingness of producers to sell.
Safras & Mercado have maintained their estimate that they foresee the Brazil July 2025 to June 2026 coffee year to reach 62.45 million bags, in line with most independent forecasters.
Arabica production will drop by 15% to 38.35 million. The Robusta crop will recover to 24.1 million. Independent analysts’ estimates range from a low of 58.40 million to a high of 65.60 million, with a median of 62.80 million.
Limited liquidity, high interest rates and difficulties in accessing credit continue to keep traders under pressure, report Brazilian media.
