MILAN – Green coffee stocks at Europe’s ports are shrinking. According to data released by the European Coffee Federation (ECF), green coffee stocks in the major coffee ports of Europe amounted to 443,565 tonnes (7,392,750 bags) as of 28 February 2025: 39,852 tonnes less (-8.2%) than on 31 January 2025. Volumes were down for all coffee categories.
ECF statistics include ICE certified stocks as well as non-exchange stocks. The data are supplied by warehousing and port organisations in Europe covering the ports of Antwerp, Hamburg, Le Havre, Barcelona, Trieste, Genoa, Napoli, Tallin, London, Felixstowe, and Bremen (partly).
The stocks are broken down in three categories: Robusta, Natural Arabica (includes Brazil Semi-Washed) and Washed Arabica.
Robusta stocks stood at 152,094 tonnes (2,534,900 bags), down from 173,748 tonnes at the end of January (-12.5%). Those of Natural Arabica amounted to 151,982 tonnes (2,533,033 bags), down slightly (-0.5%) from the previous month.
Finally, stocks of Washed Arabica fell sharply to 139,489 tonnes (2,324,817 bags), down 11.1% on the previous month.
Green coffee stocks were sharply down in February (-18.9%) from the volume of 547,124 tonnes or 9,118,733 bags recorded in December 2024.
However, the level is still higher (+10.4%) than a year ago (February 2024), when stocks amounted to 401,787 tonnes (6,696,450 bags).
Robusta (+33.3%) and natural Arabica (+20.5%) stocks rose significantly, while washed Arabica stocks were down by 13.6%.
Coffee futures prices consolidated in the last session of the week. On Friday, 28 March, the Ice Arabica (May contract) gained marginally (+115 points), after Thursday’s heavy losses, closing at 379.95 cents. The Ice Robusta (May) fell back slightly (-0.3%) to settle at $5,337. Prices on both markets were supported by the a weaker dollar.
Meanwhile, there was some encouraging news from Brazil on the weather front.
The rainfall that fell in the second half of March brought partial relief to the crops. In the week to 22 March, Minas Gerais received – according to Climatempo – an average of 31.2 mm of rain, or 102% of the historical average.
A report by Pine Agronegócios points out that in the coming days we will have to monitor the rains and how the plants behave, but there is already a reduction in production potential due to the stage of flower bud formation, although it is impossible, for the moment, to pinpoint the impact.
The start of the Robusta (conilon) harvesting period is approaching. Unlike Arabicas, production of the less prized variety is expected to increase compared to last year, although it will be affected by the hot and dry weather recorded, starting in January, in Espírito Santo, the top producing state of this variety.
Estimates range between 24 and 26 million bags. Harvesting operations for Arabica, on the other hand, will come into full swing around mid-year.
The outlook for the Robusta crop in Vietnam, the world’s largest producer of this variety, looks also encouraging. Marex Solutions expects production in the Asian country to rise by 7.9% to 28.8 million bags in 2025/26.
According to Marex, Robusta production in Brazil will be of 25 million bags, up 13.6% on year.
