MILAN – Brazil’s coffee output will surge 12.7 percent to 49.7 million bags in coffee season 2016/17, according to the latest monthly report from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). This figure is slightly below the median estimate of 50.5 million bags contained in Conab’s first official forecast released in January.
Arabica crop is expected to increase 16 percent to 38.4 million bags, with Minas Gerais accounting for 26.8 million bags, up 21 percent on year.
Arabica production in the No. 2 and No. 3 growing states of Sao Paulo and Espirito Santo, are forecast to grow by 7 percent and 21 percent, respectively.
Robusta output in Brazil should increase by 3 percent to 11.3 million bags, IBGE said. Espirito Santo, the biggest producer of this variety, is forecast to produce 7 percent more of the bean this year.
On Wednesday, large local exporter Terra Forte forecast Brazil’s new crop at 54.17 million bags, a 15 percent recovery from the year before.
The Arabica crop is seen rising to 41.38 million bags, from 32.05m bags in the previous season, while robusta production is expected to fall to 12.79 million bags, down from 15.23 million in 2015/16, due to the severe drought that hit Espirito Santo.
Brazil’s largest coffee cooperative Cooxupé expects to export 4.6 million bags in the coming season, up 12.5 percent from last year, the co-op’s commercial director, Lucio Dias, told Reuters.
Dias said Cooxupe expects to move a total of 6 million bags this coming season, with 4.89 million coming from cooperative members and 1.1 million bags that it plans to buy from non-members. The co-op expects to trade 5.19 million bags of the current crop.
