MILAN – Coffee futures prices closed mixed in Monday trading. In New York, the main contract for March delivery posted a 180-point gain to end the session at 191.10 cents per lb, after hitting a seven-month peak last week. In London, March Robusta coffee futures fell 1.2% to $ 2,796 having hit a 15-year-high of $2,860 last week.
According to Vietnam’s General Department of Customs, November coffee exports fell 7.4% year-on-year to 119,297 MT. Shipments in the first eleven months of this calendar year (Jan-Nov) fell 10.4% to 1.40 MMT.
The Vietnam Coffee Association on December 5 projected that 2023/24 Vietnam coffee production would fall to 1.6 MMT to 1.7 MMT, down from 1.78 MMT the previous sesason. They also projected that Vietnam’s coffee exports in 2023/24 may decrease by 15 % to 1.411 MMT.
Rabobank said limited Robusta trade from top producer Vietnam is prompting demand for Brazilian conillon, which hit historic highs in November.
Brazilian robusta co-op Cooabriel said on Friday, however, that thenext crop could be at least 15% smaller due to dry, hot weather.
In other news, the SAFRAS survey showed a commitment on the part of growers of 71% of Brazil’s 2023 crop until December 12. This percentage involves sales in the physicals, as well as lock-ins in advance (barter and price appraisal operations with trading companies). In general terms, sales increased by 7% last month.
The good progress in sales left the flow in line with the same period last year, remaining slightly below the 5-year average (72%).
Highlight on the sales of arabica coffee, which account for 68% of production. As a result, they surpass the same period last year, when they accounted for around 67% of production. However, that is still below the 5-year average (70%). The rise in prices and the large crop reaped this year were a little more encouraging to growers.
In the case of conillon, growers have changed their behavior and reduced the pace of sales. The delay in the harvest in Vietnam, together with the downward revision in its production, ended up attracting more external interest in Brazilian conillon. Conillon sales already reach 77% of the expected production, above the 5-year average of 76%.
