MILAN – Yesterday, Thursday, 12th September, the Ice Robusta achieved the fourth consecutive day of gains and settled for the second day in a row above the psychological threshold of $5,000. The main contract closed up a further $69 at $5,077, a new record-high for the contract. The intraday high was at $5,115, not far from the all-time high of $5,180 reached on 30th August.
Ice Arabica also closed higher. After Wednesday’s partial setback, the contract for December delivery gained 275 points, ending at a two-week high of 249.40 cents.
Arabica futures continue to suffer from the ongoing lack of rainfall in Brazil.
Forecasters are predicting a return of rain in the third week of September, but this will not be enough to repair the damage caused by months of drought.
Meanwhile, the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), a public body under the Ministry of Economic Planning, has lowered its estimate for the 2024/25 harvest by 1.6%.
Production is now estimated at 59.7 million bags, up 4.8% from 2023/24, due to a 3.6% increase in average yields and a 1.2% increase in productive areas.
The Arabica crop totalled 42 million bags, up 6.5% on the previous year. Robusta production fell 4.4% to 17.7 million bags, reflecting a 3.3% decline in the area under cultivation and a 1.1% decline in average yields.
Conab will release its third official estimate on Thursday 19 September.
Lower exports from Vietnam, down 12.1% in the first eight months of the year, continue to weigh on the Robusta front.
In Indonesia – Asia’s second largest producer of Robusta – stockists are able and willing to hold on to supply if their price expectationsare not met, Reuters reports.
Brazil, along with the US and other countries, has formally asked the European Union to delay the entry into force of the Eudr, scheduled for the end of the year.
One of the panels at the 6th CEO & Global Leaders Forum, held yesterday in London as part of the Ico’s autumn round of meetings, was dedicated to the new EU anti-deforestation legislation.
Moderated by ICO Executive Director Vanúsia Nogueira, the panel featured Eileen Gordon, Executive Director, ECF; Leonard Mizzi, Head of Unit, DG-International Partnerships, European Commission; and Mick Wheeler, Representative, PNG.
The concerns of the Brazilian industry were voiced on this occasion by Marco Matos, Director General of Cecafé. In particular, Matos highlighted the risk of false positives due to the limitations of the technologies used by the EU.
“As previously agreed with the Brazilian delegation in London, I asked the EU representatives that any divergence on these false positives be addressed and debated between governments and at the academic level, taking the burden of uncertainty and risk off the shoulders of the private sector, which is responsible for the flow of the coffee trade,” Matos said.
