LONDON – The monthly average of the ICO composite indicator was 7.3% lower in June compared to May at 151.92 US cents/lb, its lowest average since February.
All group indicators settled lower, with Colombian Milds, Other Milds and Brazilian Naturals down 7.8%, 7.6%, and 9.1% respectively, while Robustas also dropped by 4%.
In terms of the daily prices, the composite indicator did start to rally over the course of June, increasing from a low of 145.87 cents on 9 June to 157.22 cents on the 25, although this range is narrower than recent months.
The price volatility of all composite and group indicators was lower in June than May, as the dramatic price swings observed over the last few months lessened. Average price volatility in June dropped to single figures for all group indicators, reflecting the reduced levels of speculation and concern over supply.
Based on the information currently available, total production in crop year 2013/14 is estimated at around 145.2 million bags, virtually unchanged on the previous year.
Total Arabica production is estimated at 85.3 million bags, down 4% on 2012/13, as the damage from coffee leaf rust in Central America had a severe impact on production, with around 4 million bags lost compared to 2011/12 (before the outbreak).
Production of Robusta, on the other hand, is expected to increase by 6% to 59.9 million bags, compared to 56.5 million in crop year 2012/13.
This is mostly attributable to the record crop of 27.5 million bags estimated in Vietnam, although slightly lower production of 11.67 million bags is expected in Indonesia.
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