SAO PAULO, Brazil – Arabica coffee crops registered an important productive recovery in 2023, leading the 2023/24 season to be estimated at 55.1 million bags (of arabica and robusta) by Conab in December 2023, 8.2% up compared to the 2022/23 crop. As a result of the supply increase, prices moved down and were at levels considered low by producers in most part of this year, points out Cepea in its latest report.
Arabica production increased 18.9%, amounting 38.9 million bags, while robusta production downed 10.9%, totaling 16.17 million bags, according to data from Conab.
Concerning arabica, crops faced several problems between 2021 and 2022, such as frosts and hydric stress. In the 2023/24 season, weather conditions favored the production increase, especially in Minas Gerais, despite the negative biennial cycle.
As for robusta, players surveyed by Cepea say that the production decrease is related to weather problems at the beginning of the cycle: strong winds and lack of rainfall led to flower abortion.
After bringing benefits for the 2024/25 production, the weather has been causing losses and uncertainties for the 2024/25 harvest. Due to El Niño, heat waves, storms and hail in some areas damaged many coffee crops. Weather issues have also been registered in Colombia and in Vietnam, important producers of arabica and robusta, respectively.
Arabica coffee was traded in a wide price range in 2023. The CEPEA/ESALQ Index for arabica coffee varied from BRL 770 to 1,179 per 60-kilo bag. As for robusta, the CEPEA/ESALQ Index (Espírito Santo) for the type 6, screen 13, oscillated between BRL 606 and 774/bag.
Brazilian shipments totaled 35.6 million bags (arabica and robusta) in the 2022/23 season (from July/22 to June/23), 10.2% down compared to the same period of the last crop, according to data from Cecafé. The decrease is linked to the fact that producers were away from trades, to logistics problems at ports and to the smaller harvest in 2022/23.
In the 2023/24 season (between July/23 and November/23), the arabica production recovery and the firm demand for robusta favored sales. Shipments have already surpassed 18.77 million bags, for an increase of 6.2% compared to that exported in the same period of the crop before (from July/22 to November/22).
