Every year the Coffee Board of India carries out estimation of coffee crop production at two stages viz., post-blossom stage (May/June) and post-monsoon stage (Nov/Dec) to forecast the coffee crop and finally estimates the actual production in May/June of a year for the previous financial year.
Accordingly, the Coffee Board has carried out the Post Blossom coffee crop estimation for the current year (FY 2014-15) and also the final harvested crop estimates for the previous year (FY 2013-14).
Final Estimation of Coffee production for 2013-14
At the first estimate at post-blossom stage for 2013-14 season crop, a higher crop was expected as the crop condition was good with favorable weather conditions of normal blossom and backing showers in all most all the coffee growing areas.
However, coffee areas witnessed a long period of drought after receiving blossom showers, followed by an extremely harsh monsoon.
As such before the onset of monsoon, there was a heavy proliferation of White Stem Borer because of the long period of drought in the months of April/May and the subsequent heavy monsoon rains damaged robusta crop leading into wet feet conditions; fruit droppings; low fruit to clean coffee out-turns resulted in decline in actual crop harvested and thus the final crop estimate for the year 2013-14 is placed at 304,500 MT, which showed a decrease of 7,000 MT (-2.25%) over the post monsoon estimate of 311,500 MT.
Of the total final estimate of 304,500 MT, the share of Arabica is 102,200 MT and that of Robusta is 202,300 MT. The production of Arabica has shown a marginal increase of 200 MT (0.20%) while Robusta decreased by 7,200 MT (-3.44%) over the post-monsoon estimate made before crop harvesting in 2013. The loss in production has mainly come from Karnataka.
The final crop estimate for Karnataka is placed at 211,100 MT for 2013-14 with a break up of 78,440 MT of Arabica and 1,32,660 MT of Robusta. The final production in Karnataka has shown a decline of 6,600 MT (-3.03%) over the post-monsoon estimate which is mainly due to decline in Robusta production by 6,510 MT (-4.68%).
Among the districts, the major decline in production is seen in Kodagu district with 4,715 MT (-4.04%) followed by 1,610 MT in Chikmagalur (-2.28%) and 275MT in Hassan (-0.90%) districts.
In Kerala, the final estimate of 2013-14 is placed at 66,675 MT with a marginal decline of 600 MT (-0.89%) from the post monsoon estimate of 67,275 MT mainly seen in the Mananthavady (-6.45%), Kattapana (-2.29%) and Vandeperiyar (-2.29%) zones.
The Tamil Nadu final production of 2013-14 is placed at 18,775 MT which is a marginal decline of 100 MT over the post monsoon estimate of 18,875 MT.
In the Non-Traditional Areas and North Eastern Region, the final estimate of 2013-14 is placed at 7,950 MT against post monsoon estimate of 7,650 MT. The higher forecast has come mainly from Andhra Pradesh which showed an increase of 300 MT (4.32%) of Arabica Production (click the table to enlarge).
Post Blossom Coffee Crop forecast for the year 2014-15
At the time of carrying out assessments for the post blossom forecast for the current year 2014-15, it was observed that the blossom showers were by and large adequate though the distribution of these showers was not uniform and there was a slight delay in receiving the backing showers in certain pockets. However, after the blossom showers, coffee areas witnessed an abnormally long dry period. It may further be noted that this is the second successive year when coffee areas are facing long dry spell followed by blossom showers. Due to the prolonged dry spell, the Arabica areas witnessed heavy infestation of Coffee White Stem Borers resulting in crop loss in Arabica.
Further 2014-15 is an on year for Robusta crop which had suffered because of excessive rainfall during the previous year 2013-14. The continuing dry spell will have a negative impact on the development of coffee berries.
The post blossom crop forecast which was carried out immediately after blossom period is as follows:
Accordingly, the post Blossom crop forecast for the year 2014-15 is placed at 344,750 MT, which is an increase of 36,950 MT (13.22%) over the final estimate of previous year 2013-14 (304,500 MT). Of the total estimate, the break up for Arabica and Robusta is 105,500 MT and 239,250 MT respectively. The Arabica production has shown an increase of 3,300 MT (3.23%) over the final estimate of 2013-14, while that of Robusta increased by 36,950 MT (18.26%).
