COLLEGE PARK, MD, U.S. – According to the latest report issued by Climate Prediction Center/Ncep/Nws and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society, a transition to ENSO-neutral is likely during late Northern Hemisphere spring or early summer 2016, with a possible transition to La Niña conditions during the autumn.
Indicative of a strong El Niño, sea surface temperature (SSTs) anomalies were in excess of 2°C across the east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean during January.
The Niño indices in the eastern Pacific declined, while Niño-3.4 and Niño-4 were nearly unchanged.
The subsurface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific increased due to a downwelling Kelvin wave, but toward the end of the month weakened again in association with the eastward shift of below-average temperatures at depth in the central Pacific.
Also, low-level westerly wind anomalies and upper-level easterly wind anomalies continued over much of the tropical Pacific.
The traditional and equatorial Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) values remained negative but weakened relative to last month.
Convection remained much enhanced over the central and east-central tropical Pacific and suppressed over Indonesia. Collectively, these anomalies reflect the continuation of a strong El Niño.
Most models indicate that El Niño will weaken, with a transition to ENSO-neutral during the late spring or early summer 2016.
Thereafter, the chance of La Niña conditions increases into the autumn. While there is both model and physical support for La Niña following strong El Niño, considerable uncertainty remains.
A transition to ENSO-neutral is likely during late Northern Hemisphere spring or early summer 2016, with a possible transition to La Niña conditions during the autumn.
