Peru was the country most deeply affected by the El Niño Costero phenomenon that spanned between 2016 and 2017 and led to extensive flooding along the Pacific coast of South America.
However, the Integrated System of Agrarian Statistics (SIEA) said in recent report that the sector increased its production by 1.7% compared to the first half of last year. While some crops were heavily affected along the coast like cotton, limes and paprika, some others flourished elsewhere including grapes, olives, and artichokes.
Small-scale coffee farming also has experienced a small boom this year and exports are expected to reach $800 million this year.
But some of the most profitable crops might not fare well in the long run. “In South America, coffee is currently planted between 500 and 1,500 meters above sea level; reliable climate change models show that the rise in temperatures predicted for 2050 would raise the coffee belt up to 1,000 to 2,500 meters above sea level.
This would lead to a 20% decrease in the production of coffee in Peru,” ecologist Rolando Cerda of the Tropical Agricultural Research and Higher Education Center (CATIE) told Peru Reports from Costa Rica.
“Cacao, on the other hand, tolerates higher temperatures well […]. The real issue with cacao is that a rise in temperature would bring along plenty more plagues,” explained Cerda.
While not in disagreement with the above, some scientists have produced evidence that climate change would modify the agricultural outlook for the Peru—but total productivity in the sector would remain stable.
A team of researchers at the International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT) predicted that by 2050 crop adaptability to climate change in the Andes would represent a huge net loss for Colombia and Venezuela, yet Peru would offset the losses with gains in other crops.
