MILAN – Robusta coffee futures rebounded strongly yesterday, Wednesday, 4 September. In London, the contract for November delivery gained $202 to settle at $4,912, moving closer to the record- high of $4,948 reached on 30 August. Certified stocks declined slightly to 1,006,000 bags at the start of the week, the bulk of which (about 90%) were Brazilian-origin Robusta.
Ice Arabica also gained marginally, with the contract for December delivery closing at 243.70 cents, up 90 points from Tuesday’s session.
Arabica prices are underpinned by uncertainty over Brazil’s new 2025/26 harvest, just weeks before the main flowering of the Arabica crop begins. New weather forecasts from Brazil rule out significant rainfall in the short term.
On the Robusta front, exports from the Indonesian island of Sumatra increased by 13.4% in July compared to the same month a year ago, and by 140% compared to June, to 17,431.3 tonnes or 290,522 60-kg bags.
Sumatra’s Robusta is offered at a premium of between $200 and $220 over the London market prices. Indonesia’s 2024/25 production (April-March) is estimated by the markets at around 10.9 million bags.
Activity in Vietnam remains subdued due to limited carry-over stocks from this year’s harvest and will not pick up before the new crop, which will start marketing at the end of the year.
The outlook for the 2024/25 season is pessimistic, due to the severe drought that hit the coffee areas in the first half of the year.
According to Swiss trader Volcafe, Vietnam’s 2024/25 harvest could be only 24 million bags, the lowest in 13 years.
It should be noted that parts of the Central Highlands were recently hit by heavy rains, which did not damage the crops, according to local traders.
Meanwhile, farmgate prices in the Central Highlands areas are between 119,000 and 120,500 dong ($4.78-$4.84), down slightly from the previous week. The market was closed earlier this week for a national holiday.
