MILAN — Robusta coffee futures fell sharply yesterday, Monday 2 September, as New York was closed for the Labor Day holiday. In London, the Ice Robusta contract for November delivery lost $248 or -5%, plunging to $4,700, its lowest since 21 August. Profit taking in an overbought market caused the heavy fall in prices.
However, prices continue to benefit from strong support from tight supplies and weather conditions in Vietnam and Indonesia.
The Arabica market is focused on the Brazilian weather, in particular the arrival of rains later this month, which will start the flowering season of the new crop.
Meanwhile, a new report from Cepea shows that the CEPEA/ESALQ indicator for Robusta coffee reached new all-time highs in August, outperforming the Arabica indicator. It is the second time that is happening in Cepea’s historical series, that runs from November 2001. The first time was between October 2016 and January 2017.
High prices – for both Arabica and Robusta – and a favourable exchange rate favour Brazil’s exports, despite the ongoing logistical difficulties.
The entry into force of the new anti-deforestation regulations continues to boost exports to EU countries.
Cecafé will publish its export data for the month of August next week. The third official estimate of Brazil’s 2024/25 crop from government agency Conab will be released on 19 September.
Bad news from Honduran exports. In fact, exports from Central America’s top producer fell by 19.4% to 321,303 bags in August.
This brings the total for the first 11 months of the 2023/24 coffee year to 4.53 million bags, down 11.7% from the same period in 2022/23.
