MILANO – Robusta futures hit new all-time highs in yesterday’s session, Thursday, 11 July. The contract for September delivery hit a new intraday record of $4,681 to settle at $4,576, still up $99 from Wednesday. Since the start of the year, the Ice Robusta benchmark has risen more than 63%.
In New York, the main contract surged to an intraday of 255.30 cents, its highest level in almost two and a half years.
Although falling back later in the session, the contract ended the day at 244.65 cents, 130 points above the previous close.
The market continues to closely monitor the situation in Brazil and Vietnam. In Brazil, dry weather with rainfall well below seasonal averages in producing areas continues to cause concern, but at the same time favours the harvesting, which is progressing at a faster pace.
The latest update from Safras & Mercado reports that the Brazilian harvest was about two-thirds (66%) complete as of 9 July, compared to 59% as of the same date last year.
S&M forecasts a Brazilian 2024/25 production of 69.5 million bags, but this estimate will most likely be cut given the Increasing signs that Brazil’s coffee crop will be smaller than expected, both for Arabicas and Robustas.
The weather is also of great concern in Vietnam, where drought has already reduced the potential of the next harvest.
“Activity is very tepid now and will remain this sluggish until at least early November. Only those who have to fulfil their contracts will buy at this current sky high price,” a trader in country’s coffee was quoted as saying by Reuters.
Local sources meanwhile indicate that prices in the Central Highlands have averaged 127,000-127,700 dong (about $5) these days from 120,000-122,000 last week.
Vietnam’s coffee exports in the first half of the year totalled 893,820 tonnes, down 11.4 per cent from the same period last year, according to customs data.
In June, 70,202 tonnes were exported, 11.5% less than the same month a year ago.
